NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf66551b1a9d21c9f796dc8c68dbf9efb88aa34c2724ac953dcc3c0aa6fd5f24c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof Celtics, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bdd…1378backed 76ers | 55c | 1,996$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…6db2backed Celtics | 51c | 572.78$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…3de6backed Celtics | 51c | 538.89$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed 76ers | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Celtics | 51c | 477.63$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.62 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Celtics | 45c | 432.61$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…3452backed Celtics | 51c | 388.69$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked 76ers | 51c | 371.57$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.21 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…d4b3backed 76ers | 56c | 366.28$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Celtics | 42c | 237.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Celtics | 51c | 200.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…5095backed 76ers | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Celtics | 47c | 153.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Celtics | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fc…d401backed Celtics | 55c | 137.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Celtics | 50c | 114.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed 76ers | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Celtics | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 76ers | 52c | 79.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Celtics | 60c | 71.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcebd…2502backed Celtics | 49c | 58.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed 76ers | 30c | 47.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…e3f7backed Celtics | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Celtics | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e55…be6fbacked 76ers | 53c | 36.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Celtics | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Celtics | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked 76ers | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-8.5)this page
- 76ers vs. Celtics76ers won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 209.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 210.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Paul George: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-13.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-14.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)76ers won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)76ers won
- Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.