NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02222b2c5aa7f2936120d21302f8fc8a140341830a1d241275b49076518f29e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2e3…fbb2backed Raptors | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 55c | 4,017$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Celtics | 59c | 3,906$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.6 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 40c | 2,921$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Celtics | 61c | 2,910$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.84 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf373…dc57backed Celtics | 53c | 1,960$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Celtics | 54c | 1,548$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.31 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…390abacked Raptors | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Raptors | 41c | 1,050$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 45c | 862.12$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.66 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors | 41c | 733.48$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.73 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 56c | 704.17$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…b4cfbacked Raptors | 46c | 659.94$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.57 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dab…0711backed Celtics | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Celtics | 56c | 460$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9239…a358backed Celtics | 56c | 439.97$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Celtics | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 151 | 61.6%93 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…4e13backed Celtics | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Celtics | 59c | 262.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.83 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Celtics | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Raptors | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Raptors | 41c | 224$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…2462backed Raptors | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…d527backed Raptors | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 30c | 215$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 54c | 213.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics | 53c | 212.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5629…dcefbacked Raptors | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Celtics | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Raptors | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Celtics | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 89 | 70.8%63 W · 26 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Raptors | 53c | 176$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Celtics | 61c | 171.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 54c | 161.35$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Raptors | 41c | 140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Raptors | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Raptors | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Celtics | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Celtics | 59c | 85.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Celtics | 59c | 84.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 60c | 83.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed Celtics | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Raptors | 41c | 70.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Raptors | 42c | 68.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 78c | 64.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Raptors | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Raptors | 49c | 55.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Celtics | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Raptors | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…1dbabacked Raptors | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Celtics | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Raptors | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Raptors | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Raptors | 41c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Raptors | 41c | 46.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Celtics | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Celtics | 73c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Celtics | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Raptors | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Celtics | 54c | 34.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Celtics | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Raptors | 46c | 32.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…3be0backed Raptors | 46c | 30.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…241bbacked Celtics | 54c | 30.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Raptors | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…2eefbacked Celtics | 61c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Celtics | 56c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Celtics | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked Celtics | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Raptors vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Raptors vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Raptors vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.