Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13a51d63e8053ee7045caf8653ddcbe57d58cf829e94431084bb3de35c0b5dcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 6,001$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked No | 0c | 5,066$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 55c | 4,576$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.35 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 4,198$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.47 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc6…0128backed No | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 55c | 3,464$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.9 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…b394backed No | 3c | 2,886$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 43c | 2,369$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.55 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 41c | 2,344$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.4 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…0307backed Yes | 49c | 2,179$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed No | 41c | 2,062$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…8b09backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af0…2d85backed No | 59c | 1,955$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9df1backed No | 54c | 1,869$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…a60abacked No | 57c | 1,767$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…c11abacked No | 1c | 1,714$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,656$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 46c | 1,634$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.43 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 59c | 1,622$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.46 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…aca4backed No | 1c | 1,601$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…6b9ebacked No | 54c | 1,338$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 1,304$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.1 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…26e2backed No | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 53cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes | 26c | 1,195$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 53c | 1,050$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.78 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 41c | 1,013$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.67 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f00…aba4backed Yes | 55c | 996$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 53c | 989.98$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.29 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fe…746bbacked Yes | 51c | 989.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…29ddbacked Yes | 59c | 940.65$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 45c | 939.47$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.47 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 42c | 930.91$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.93 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 70c | 899.98$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.99 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 16c | 888.27$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.53 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…7ff7backed No | 47c | 855.8$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…42d2backed Yes | 55c | 825$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…bbb5backed Yes | 55c | 815$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked Yes | 62c | 806.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked No | 38c | 806.36$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.79 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 49c | 799.99$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.99 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 798.98$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.56 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92aabacked Yes | 55c | 768$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 59c | 711$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 41c | 711$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 49c | 669.93$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…0b4fbacked No | 44c | 667.79$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 74c | 662$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 50c | 607.77$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.36 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…aa25backed No | 10c | 599.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…f6f6backed Yes | 55c | 596$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 56c | 584$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 42c | 567.87$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.94 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…e251backed No | 51c | 558.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked No | 74c | 533$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 71c | 515$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 29c | 515$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…e6eabacked No | 62c | 513.81$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 59c | 511$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 62c | 509.58$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.93 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 59c | 502$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.18 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…2b93backed No | 44c | 499.97$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 51c | 485.13$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.92 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked No | 40c | 478$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked No | 56c | 474.83$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x484b…7a7abacked Yes | 43c | 460.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ad…a1fcbacked No | 45c | 443.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 44c | 441.73$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.17 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…9c30backed No | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 70c | 419.33$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.79 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…8016backed No | 34c | 419$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 52c | 415$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed No | 48c | 414$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 48c | 400$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.5 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 49c | 399.29$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +7.0wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +463%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 41c | 399.15$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.38 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…dd7cbacked Yes | 42c | 397.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 76c | 395.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 49c | 390.14$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d312backed Yes | 21c | 375.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…3e4cbacked Yes | 56c | 373.3$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 46c | 372.39$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 51c | 353.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 51c | 351.24$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.88 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…b6dabacked No | 33c | 337.62$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…e3c2backed No | 60c | 335.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 60c | 329.74$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…138cbacked No | 61c | 328.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…0a67backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b6…740dbacked No | 12c | 317.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…fc69backed Yes | 44c | 301$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 44c | 300$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.04 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…916bbacked No | 56c | 299.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215e…f463backed Yes | 24c | 297.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 44c | 283$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…8f64backed No | 62c | 274.88$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes | 17c | 274.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.59 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.