TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIA Esportsof FURIA Esports, Evil Geniuses
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8660…93edbacked Evil Geniuses48c25,652$12,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,309.2917948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Evil Geniuses44c12,183$5,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,412.3825554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0aa4…5dc8backed FURIA Esports52c9,628$4,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,629.492564%16 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA Esports66c6,898$4,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.368458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Evil Geniuses48c6,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8803956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Evil Geniuses64c5,012$3,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.4919751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Evil Geniuses48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9726050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed FURIA Esports55c4,512$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.226746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked FURIA Esports56c3,333$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Evil Geniuses48c3,223$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.4228143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked FURIA Esports55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3502343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Evil Geniuses49c2,710$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.684860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Evil Geniuses30c2,691$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.3940945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FURIA Esports62c2,585$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.6539646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed FURIA Esports51c2,564$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.2726447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked FURIA Esports52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20026738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed FURIA Esports50c2,175$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.1332245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked FURIA Esports55c2,169$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.51955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed FURIA Esports28c2,068$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.8210946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc581…0f24backed FURIA Esports52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d76…1298backed FURIA Esports52c1,980$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.51966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed FURIA Esports27c1,932$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.845143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00c4…4c30backed FURIA Esports52c1,776$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed FURIA Esports52c1,748$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.852050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Evil Geniuses44c1,705$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed FURIA Esports53c1,688$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.7228252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FURIA Esports53c1,687$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.756357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a28…ff8cbacked FURIA Esports57c1,580$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.913250%16 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FURIA Esports62c1,543$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.1115147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA Esports63c1,426$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.2353159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed FURIA Esports52c1,384$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.028145.7%37 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed FURIA Esports54c1,380$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.177749.4%38 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Evil Geniuses33c1,290$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.193148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…635cbacked Evil Geniuses49c1,183$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.666045%27 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked FURIA Esports52c1,164$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.421020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-63.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed FURIA Esports52c1,111$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.281442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee1…3e22backed FURIA Esports56c1,060$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf006…4d60backed Evil Geniuses46c1,019$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Evil Geniuses48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48011354%61 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FURIA Esports55c999.98$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.9933153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedde…0e96backed Evil Geniuses47c999.98$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.992857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Evil Geniuses48c999.96$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9824946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Evil Geniuses43c994$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.4228743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Evil Geniuses41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36946326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Evil Geniuses45c896.33$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.5718457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Evil Geniuses45c888.2$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.6913743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf397…f3c8backed FURIA Esports52c865.38$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.382572%18 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Evil Geniuses46c837.7$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.2936138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Evil Geniuses44c807.25$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.1956551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Evil Geniuses37c801.93$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.423627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Evil Geniuses51c759.02$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.1618143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FURIA Esports56c746.06$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.7451749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81d1…4806backed FURIA Esports57c689.27$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.778357.8%48 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked FURIA Esports56c666$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.042759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.8wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+57.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FURIA Esports52c638.46$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4628747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Evil Geniuses42c619.97$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3938950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Evil Geniuses49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Evil Geniuses34c611.51$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.288844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed FURIA Esports51c599.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2945052%26 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed FURIA Esports51c588.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2317948.6%87 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6d…6f31backed FURIA Esports52c579.5$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.166443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Evil Geniuses46c579$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.345147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3116…b30dbacked Evil Geniuses45c576$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.22450%12 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FURIA Esports73c557.09$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.4553355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa521…d609backed Evil Geniuses48c555.19$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.83363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Evil Geniuses54c549.97$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29926758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Evil Geniuses43c526.91$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.571,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Evil Geniuses42c494.76$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked FURIA Esports67c494$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7915334.6%53 W · 100 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FURIA Esports52c491.85$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.0962856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Evil Geniuses40c477$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.576235.5%22 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FURIA Esports62c457.68$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.2893049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Evil Geniuses37c437.28$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.260154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Evil Geniuses35c428.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.251948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadeb…5850backed Evil Geniuses34c427.11$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FURIA Esports58c423.96$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7565559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked FURIA Esports52c421$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.0815342.5%65 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed FURIA Esports52c419.96$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.647544%33 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Evil Geniuses49c416.67$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.174759.6%28 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked FURIA Esports52c415.38$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.38966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked FURIA Esports32c409.18$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.474163.4%26 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47c1…024dbacked Evil Geniuses49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81a8…9c69backed Evil Geniuses48c402.92$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.661145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a97…7a1bbacked Evil Geniuses39c400.69$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.332871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed FURIA Esports64c400$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1462147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed FURIA Esports51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19628541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b4…7056backed FURIA Esports27c364.67$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.213050%15 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed FURIA Esports36c361.73$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0123732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2eef…28adbacked FURIA Esports56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Evil Geniuses28c354.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FURIA Esports57c350.95$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7757151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Evil Geniuses46c350.56$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.34358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…e183backed FURIA Esports52c342.31$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.314100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+113.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked FURIA Esports66c337.35$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8870043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FURIA Esports49c330.85$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8794361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked Evil Geniuses49c316.73$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.26931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcce…c920backed FURIA Esports52c310$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.81070%7 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eac…35afbacked FURIA Esports52c310$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Evil Geniuses43c299.37$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7326450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Evil Geniuses25c296.68$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.341,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.