TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof PARIVISION, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$355,721
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$404,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,721 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Legacy72c99,626$72,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,600.1450054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed PARIVISION25c33,565$8,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,394.1325355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed PARIVISION16c19,891$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,086.794526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked PARIVISION25c8,412$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.7883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked PARIVISION37c8,193$3,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.519855.1%54 W · 44 L+8.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION24c6,022$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.491,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked PARIVISION37c5,890$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.4523145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked PARIVISION11c5,660$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.6222129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed PARIVISION24c5,307$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.0588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb84…5fb5backed PARIVISION36c4,856$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.151540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Legacy79c4,656$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.272,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked PARIVISION13c4,250$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.7913043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed PARIVISION15c4,034$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.121135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked PARIVISION22c4,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89034559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Legacy75c3,910$2,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.711,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked PARIVISION29c3,769$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.511,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked PARIVISION37c3,582$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31832542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION25c3,048$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.71,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked PARIVISION26c3,000$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.530726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked PARIVISION28c2,702$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.646854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed PARIVISION22c2,643$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.5849941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bef…5e49backed PARIVISION22c2,600$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.18256.1%46 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Legacy74c2,506$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.238868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Legacy74c2,359$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.941,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked PARIVISION35c2,278$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79435745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked PARIVISION15c2,264$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.156647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Legacy72c2,233$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.9985851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Legacy64c2,121$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.515155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93df…7306backed Legacy76c2,000$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.53253.1%17 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked PARIVISION27c1,897$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.2675245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb5…a27bbacked PARIVISION11c1,865$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION29c1,795$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.672,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed PARIVISION25c1,693$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.828943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION23c1,676$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.096,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION22c1,600$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35251252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION29c1,573$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.815,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PARIVISION20c1,515$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.683,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PARIVISION20c1,501$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.22,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed PARIVISION34c1,484$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8478043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Legacy77c1,471$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.2712759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PARIVISION21c1,454$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.294,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Legacy68c1,450$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.431,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed PARIVISION3c1,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9942427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked PARIVISION21c1,328$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.3562738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed PARIVISION15c1,173$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1767439.2%29 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04aa…2e69backed PARIVISION19c1,122$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.344647.8%22 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed PARIVISION14c1,026$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1741716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2fd…5dabbacked PARIVISION10c1,014$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.579746.4%45 W · 52 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cc7…43e5backed PARIVISION2c960.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.047716.9%13 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed PARIVISION39c954.33$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.1948240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PARIVISION23c875.79$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Legacy78c829.46$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.8419150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked PARIVISION37c810$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Legacy79c809.99$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.135460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked Legacy74c806.56$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.5617967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Legacy63c783.29$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.8226546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Legacy64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2520958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Legacy65c773.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.071,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x003b…ace5backed Legacy75c771.11$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.22157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+73.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked PARIVISION23c739.38$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1335744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed PARIVISION29c704.18$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1713655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PARIVISION21c701.38$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.094,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed PARIVISION23c701.04$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+53.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION37c698.19$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3335242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Legacy77c693.64$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.496552.3%34 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION25c674.14$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5781751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PARIVISION20c649$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9857322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c7…38e1backed PARIVISION31c644.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Legacy68c637.28$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.632,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a9e…a24bbacked Legacy78c630.8$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.155188.2%45 W · 6 L+12.9wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+40.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed PARIVISION20c621.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.341,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed PARIVISION22c612.3$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.984,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Legacy61c603$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.171,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed PARIVISION29c597$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5761034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed PARIVISION37c595$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1523355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked PARIVISION33c590.17$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.183,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed PARIVISION27c582.76$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3513550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed PARIVISION35c581.46$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5123243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed PARIVISION24c551.63$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.798534.1%29 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Legacy71c511.02$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1324447.1%115 W · 129 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab87…117ebacked PARIVISION31c510.65$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3117449.4%86 W · 88 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION16c502.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.357,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed PARIVISION3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f5…09ddbacked PARIVISION3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15339.1%3 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Legacy60c499.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20031647.5%150 W · 166 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked PARIVISION21c499.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10552834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Legacy61c499.99$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.9943640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370d…a9e0backed PARIVISION29c499.98$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Legacy56c499.98$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.998562.4%53 W · 32 L+14.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+33.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed PARIVISION40c497.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Legacy71c489.73$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.0250846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked PARIVISION7c476.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530223.2%70 W · 232 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked PARIVISION13c460.97$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.222,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked PARIVISION23c460.35$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8814544.8%65 W · 80 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf47d…2834backed PARIVISION14c439.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.514545.5%66 W · 79 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…b3a6backed PARIVISION23c435.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012535.2%44 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed PARIVISION40c431.69$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6865546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed Legacy71c421.13$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.136354%34 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed PARIVISION22c409.13$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0152750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Legacy78c399.39$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3921053.8%113 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.