TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $682 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd38…99d4backed Yes48c313.43$150 inLost-$150.3125657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No52c300$156 inWon+$14456050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No52c89.57$47 inWon+$42.7943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No53c84.38$45 inWon+$39.6676247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cd…da0dbacked Yes47c84.38$40 inLost-$39.664647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes43c39.81$17 inLost-$17.1284342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1815…e217backed No57c31.58$18 inWon+$13.588855.7%49 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764d…96aebacked Yes47c30$14 inLost-$14.14341.9%18 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked No55c25.61$14 inWon+$11.615451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No49c25.58$12 inWon+$13.1440546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…c7a7backed Yes48c25$12 inLost-$121442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.