NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2505894a8c85177cc846538292bbe0e8a014a1c496509a7e912f5c26017a3eac

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $105,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $105,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,163 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe0f0…bad3backed Over	50c	57,704$28,789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,789.07	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Under	50c	50,758$25,379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,378.95	376	27.9%105 W · 271 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Over	49c	8,120$3,979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,978.73	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Under	51c	8,036$4,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,937.77	124	50.8%63 W · 61 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Under	51c	6,000$3,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,940	328	46.6%153 W · 175 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	22c	4,010$884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$883.7	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under	75c	2,508$1,891 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$616.63	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	51c	2,222$1,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,088.78	475	42.3%201 W · 274 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.7wins	+0.21per pick	41cpaid	+70.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	49c	1,800$882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$882	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfa…27b2backed Over	7c	1,782$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under	51c	1,633$833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800.17	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Over	50c	1,296$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648	155	43.2%67 W · 88 L	-7.8wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Over	51c	1,109$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568.36	117	57.3%67 W · 50 L	+9.6wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dfb…0b3dbacked Under	48c	1,021$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.83	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	-4.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Over	52c	867.67$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Under	47c	697.48$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.66	199	37.2%74 W · 125 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	50c	649.44$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.88	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under	48c	600$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312	382	42.9%164 W · 218 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Over	48c	489.71$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.06	650	45.1%293 W · 357 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	50c	450.88$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.44	620	51.1%317 W · 303 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over	50c	391.08$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.47	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	-5.6wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	49c	385.27$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.78	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…ad11backed Over	50c	380.89$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.09	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Under	53c	300$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141	216	53.7%116 W · 100 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	170	47.6%81 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x920e…7873backed Under	70c	286.21$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.21	116	45.7%53 W · 63 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over	49c	277.9$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.17	1,322	49.9%660 W · 662 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Under	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	153	36.6%56 W · 97 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea9…a420backed Over	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	38cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	329	57.4%189 W · 140 L	+18.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81d7…32d8backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e55…be6fbacked Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c94…f9f4backed Under	52c	192.74$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.74	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-9.9wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-23%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Over	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	443	47.2%209 W · 234 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	7c	145.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Over	11c	145.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	110	57.3%63 W · 47 L	+6.6wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Under	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	42c	138.84$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.31	890	48.8%434 W · 456 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over	15c	114.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	611	51.4%314 W · 297 L	+17.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over	15c	114.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	376	47.3%178 W · 198 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over	54c	111.3$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	267	55.1%147 W · 120 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Over	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…d4cebacked Under	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	188	50.5%95 W · 93 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Over	20c	91$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	130	36.2%47 W · 83 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	27c	89.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	1,084	50%542 W · 542 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over	44c	80.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.63	592	55.4%328 W · 264 L	+23.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec45…6c6dbacked Under	51c	76$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.24	91	56%51 W · 40 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Under	67c	74.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	296	65.5%194 W · 102 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under	53c	73.36$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.48	492	47.2%232 W · 260 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	48c	68.08$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.4	552	51.3%283 W · 269 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over	54c	64.81$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	150	55.3%83 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed Over	50c	63.63$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.82	67	37.3%25 W · 42 L	-9.0wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2798…a9c7backed Under	48c	62$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.24	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	29c	61.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Over	33c	55.2$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	279	45.9%128 W · 151 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09d…d23fbacked Under	75c	49.46$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.37	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over	39c	48$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	469	59.1%277 W · 192 L	+28.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34de…8e6bbacked Under	59c	48$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.45	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over	44c	47.95$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	259	58.3%151 W · 108 L	+16.2wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Over	52c	47.71$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.94	210	56.7%119 W · 91 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Over	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b37…039dbacked Under	47c	39.99$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.19	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	53c	39.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.19	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b8…e54fbacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf112…2d0cbacked Under	67c	37.31$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.31	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	51c	36.82$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c99…d91abacked Under	53c	31$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.57	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Over	52c	30.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	275	39.6%109 W · 166 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x809f…b1c0backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+20%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	62	59.7%37 W · 25 L	+6.3wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Under	73c	27$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.29	804	40.3%324 W · 480 L	+27.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	46c	25.38$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.71	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Under	49c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.75	72	37.5%27 W · 45 L	-7.6wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bbd…98f2backed Under	48c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	451	46.1%208 W · 243 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	53c	23.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a30…c241backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5this page
1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Timberwolves won
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Timberwolves won
1H Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Timberwolves won
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 17.5No won
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5No won
Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 16.5No won
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Julius Randle: Points O/U 21.5No won
Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Timberwolves won
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5No won
Timberwolves vs. SpursTimberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Under won
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5No won
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5

What this market resolved to

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