TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$961

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $931 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed No52c291.21$152 inWon+$139.5779650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No50c224.66$112 inWon+$112.3356050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58c…8b7fbacked Yes47c215$101 inLost-$100.94738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f08…d224backed Yes50c162$81 inLost-$813125.8%8 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed Yes50c60$30 inLost-$3014953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8637…d0cbbacked No54c55.68$30 inWon+$25.68540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf81d…af54backed Yes57c52.67$30 inLost-$29.851650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764d…96aebacked Yes48c49.99$24 inLost-$244341.9%18 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed No54c44.28$24 inWon+$20.2820247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea48…3216backed Yes47c40$19 inLost-$18.86642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No50c30$15 inWon+$15.1526957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes48c28.58$14 inLost-$13.7224038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No60c17.5$11 inWon+$71,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.