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NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Spurs, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,679 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Timberwolves47c3,500$1,660 inWon+$1,84050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Spurs52c2,490$1,295 inLost-$1,29524847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…8796backed Spurs54c1,040$562 inLost-$561.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Timberwolves47c943.4$443 inWon+$50021549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b4…1483backed Spurs53c943.4$500 inLost-$50014045.7%64 W · 76 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Spurs55c309.09$170 inLost-$17013153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves45c301.55$136 inWon+$165.852,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f10…0cb9backed Timberwolves49c167.35$82 inWon+$85.351747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves46c164.65$75 inWon+$89.262,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061a…89dcbacked Spurs54c129.63$70 inLost-$70425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Spurs52c67.59$35 inLost-$35.3421056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Timberwolves48c58.54$28 inWon+$30.5413047.7%62 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Spurs44c50$22 inLost-$21.862047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves47c39.62$19 inWon+$211,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0554…79b9backed Timberwolves47c27.66$13 inWon+$14.66966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Timberwolves47c21.39$10 inWon+$11.3429243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.