TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,256 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b45…9723backed No60c1,600$964 inWon+$63626069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No64c899.99$576 inWon+$32490863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf339…2c6ebacked Yes36c869.42$312 inLost-$311.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked Yes42c826.16$349 inLost-$3497153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f45…2347backed No76c647.11$492 inWon+$155.2528100%28 W · 0 L+9.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes35c509.07$180 inLost-$1803925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…4eb0backed Yes42c488.1$205 inLost-$2052030%6 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b1…e68abacked Yes36c430$155 inLost-$154.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8648…03d9backed Yes26c400$104 inLost-$104812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No57c303.3$172 inWon+$131.181,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x043f…ca25backed No65c300$195 inWon+$1056361.9%39 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No61c204.25$124 inWon+$80.314,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Yes36c200.51$71 inLost-$71.52842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaed…37d5backed Yes28c179$50 inLost-$50.051729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No65c165.98$108 inWon+$58.099267.4%62 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabb1…e0cbbacked Yes43c104.73$45 inLost-$44.611216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4ef…ce6cbacked Yes36c98$35 inLost-$35.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes41c77.39$32 inLost-$31.7323748.1%114 W · 123 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Yes44c75.23$33 inLost-$32.924428.7%70 W · 174 L-22.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c65$38 inWon+$26.9665630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No65c65$42 inWon+$22.7522774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No57c60$34 inWon+$25.821672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed Yes28c45.93$13 inLost-$12.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a89…5698backed Yes28c44.48$12 inLost-$12.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9d…8498backed No79c17.96$14 inWon+$3.775648.2%27 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.