TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,751 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa965…3565backed No53c831.69$438 inLost-$438.181,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Yes45c222.47$100 inWon+$122.4737352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa80…f251backed Yes46c217.39$100 inWon+$117.39933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Yes49c202.21$100 inWon+$102.2160346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed No56c135.26$76 inLost-$75.7520744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes44c113.64$50 inWon+$63.6493036.5%339 W · 591 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d54…a756backed Yes45c100$45 inWon+$555942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No56c51.92$29 inLost-$28.8583158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7322…bccebacked Yes51c38.88$20 inWon+$18.887360.3%44 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10a7…97d4backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.742360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes71c35.21$25 inWon+$10.2128536.8%105 W · 180 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No29c35.21$10 inLost-$10.2176054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5d0…1a0fbacked No40c31.29$13 inLost-$12.522860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b6…eb83backed Yes60c25$15 inWon+$10977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.