TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,672

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,667 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No55c1,001$548 inWon+$452.585,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae60…1f06backed Yes45c775.73$349 inLost-$349.087448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes46c225$104 inLost-$103.595651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae28…5d17backed No40c156$62 inWon+$93.63860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed No40c94$38 inWon+$56.48752.9%46 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked No38c50$19 inWon+$319050%45 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…d929backed Yes60c34$20 inLost-$20.41942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6393…dde9backed Yes62c33$20 inLost-$20.463148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89fe…4293backed Yes60c31$19 inLost-$18.61450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ee…012fbacked Yes60c29$17 inLost-$17.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb990…3d1cbacked Yes60c27$16 inLost-$16.22450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4918…3db7backed Yes60c25$15 inLost-$152948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73a3…dac6backed Yes60c19$11 inLost-$11.43743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdee3…7b2ebacked Yes60c18$11 inLost-$10.81540%6 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-27.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa305…73c9backed Yes62c17$11 inLost-$10.542860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.