TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,409
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,409 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd622…8b56backed Under44c1,200$528 inLost-$5288339.8%33 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under11c1,104$118 inLost-$118.198,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over56c959$538 inWon+$421.241,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under5c746.17$40 inLost-$40.391,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under21c740.31$152 inLost-$152.282,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under44c525.01$231 inLost-$231.014,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under19c438.6$83 inLost-$83.1726034.6%90 W · 170 L-20.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over51c392.16$200 inWon+$192.1633150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over56c351.34$197 inWon+$154.442,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over56c273.99$153 inWon+$121.179,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over53c238.89$126 inWon+$113.174,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over62c203.28$127 inWon+$76.283,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under48c199.99$96 inLost-$9624946.6%116 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under44c174.18$76 inLost-$76.353,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Under45c154$69 inLost-$69.38644.2%38 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under44c129.5$57 inLost-$56.981,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under43c104.21$45 inLost-$44.813,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66cb…3111backed Over57c104.21$59 inWon+$44.811145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0da2…1f5abacked Under49c99.99$49 inLost-$491533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under35c96.62$34 inLost-$33.823,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under43c93$40 inLost-$39.992,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over57c93$53 inWon+$39.9939449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under45c90$41 inLost-$40.51,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over62c89.33$55 inWon+$34.331,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over56c53.57$30 inWon+$23.5754854.2%297 W · 251 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under45c48.44$22 inLost-$21.881,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Under39c38.46$15 inLost-$1516935.5%60 W · 109 L-16.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0068…d7b0backed Over55c38$21 inWon+$17.13234.4%11 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-34.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed Over55c35$19 inWon+$15.752962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over55c30$17 inWon+$13.53565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf33d…1969backed Over55c29$16 inWon+$13.054654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc9…185bbacked Over52c23.08$12 inWon+$11.0829247.9%140 W · 152 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fec…8dc3backed Over55c22$12 inWon+$9.93256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over62c18.31$11 inWon+$7.0457657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.