AI · resolved market
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e36797c1b460ffada25fb66ef39d591333a3d2adc2dc1a3cb0914a088e6901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $547,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $647,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $547,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed No | 0c | 107,958$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked No | 0c | 35,770$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 1c | 26,165$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed Yes | 7c | 17,323$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,093.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 16c | 17,284$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,510.25 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 0c | 13,083$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…39a5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…79afbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,889$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,870.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2,281.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb36d…0e7ebacked No | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 77c | 7,563$5,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,805.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 5,210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…bb0fbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9e…bd89backed Yes | 9c | 3,223$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +522%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,025$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed No | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 33c | 1,984$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 16c | 1,700$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 47c | 1,674$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.55 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328b…fa07backed No | 1c | 1,612$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec9…5f0dbacked No | 4c | 1,605$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 1,208$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…bce0backed Yes | 22c | 1,049$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +349.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 985$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 14c | 984.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.08 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 599.73$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.34 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 558.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.35 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 76c | 460.5$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 408$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.76 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 37c | 391.55$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.05 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed Yes | 25c | 365.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.83 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 52c | 337.31$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.29 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.6 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 74c | 296.84$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.66 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed No | 5c | 254.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…e8aabacked Yes | 7c | 240$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,299.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 39c | 228.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 11c | 190.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.47 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…f963backed No | 13c | 143.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e85…4ba4backed No | 71c | 103.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 101.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 26c | 96.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…2ab4backed No | 33c | 92.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…086abacked No | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 60c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 60c | 37.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 77c | 27.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 74c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 44c | 26.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 24.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will a new MAI model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.