TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x287c…2ab4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3030%9 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$642Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+186.9%+$1,200.31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+193.2%+$396.3
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+58.4%+$60.51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$287.35
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,871Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,871.47
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.61
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$457.46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$371.11
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$595Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$595.39
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+171.9%+$54.24
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.97
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$714.06
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.93
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$472Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+211.2%+$996.29
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.46
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.89
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,001.43
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$27.31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.47
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+154.2%+$212.37
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+471.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+241.5%+$57.99
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+701.4%+$129.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+109.4%+$51.46
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.12
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+491.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+491.7%+$167.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.