TailMyPicks
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heroicof FUT Esports, Heroic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$210,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,689 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Heroic37c23,440$8,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,878.3130726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed FUT Esports61c16,466$9,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,967.461,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked FUT Esports59c16,118$9,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,553.22,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed FUT Esports4c10,476$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.0144743.8%196 W · 251 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ea…538dbacked FUT Esports1c10,246$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13320549.8%102 W · 103 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FUT Esports58c9,245$5,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,343.173,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FUT Esports52c7,397$3,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,862.074,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked FUT Esports32c7,004$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.2460540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Heroic43c5,953$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.315760.5%95 W · 62 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heroic34c5,819$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,854.253,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FUT Esports68c4,576$3,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,116.35,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Heroic47c3,868$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.976858.8%40 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x499f…ccafbacked FUT Esports30c3,370$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006048.3%29 W · 31 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Heroic41c3,180$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.435850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic40c2,592$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.11,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports63c2,500$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.265,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heroic36c2,485$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.827,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic42c2,391$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.382,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Heroic48c2,103$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.351,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked FUT Esports59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18022550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Heroic48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04012446.8%58 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked FUT Esports62c1,913$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.9145357.2%259 W · 194 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed FUT Esports63c1,884$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.1752947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports61c1,675$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.5975545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Heroic48c1,638$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.1989546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked Heroic48c1,620$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.5910345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked FUT Esports18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27061228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed FUT Esports53c1,459$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.3633452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed FUT Esports56c1,415$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.1534146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Heroic44c1,329$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.691,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FUT Esports25c1,200$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051,28322%282 W · 1,001 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed FUT Esports38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45631444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked FUT Esports58c1,117$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.2647738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed FUT Esports60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic51c969.56$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.616,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FUT Esports54c967.68$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.42,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FUT Esports52c965.76$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.173,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed FUT Esports62c732.23$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45369635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Heroic39c640.64$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.6416235.8%58 W · 104 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic38c624.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.624,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Heroic40c615$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36946349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed FUT Esports63c477.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003545.7%16 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed FUT Esports65c461.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30053850.6%272 W · 266 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Heroic32c450.64$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.7314532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Heroic52c383.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.0366162.6%414 W · 247 L+29.2wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed FUT Esports27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014929.5%44 W · 105 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4814…9a18backed FUT Esports69c366.67$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2533243.8%14 W · 18 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1aee…8796backed FUT Esports61c356.72$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.6228254.6%154 W · 128 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed FUT Esports63c346.51$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.119048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed FUT Esports51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15378348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0af…3b75backed FUT Esports57c277.01$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15918342.1%77 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Heroic61c262.8$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.411,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heroic37c253$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.391,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc935…2579backed FUT Esports72c250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Heroic36c224.97$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1196743.5%421 W · 546 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27e…d69dbacked FUT Esports40c222.62$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9012050.8%61 W · 59 L+12.7wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed FUT Esports59c209.98$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.891,48958%863 W · 626 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Heroic37c207.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.031,65932.7%542 W · 1,117 L-49.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b2…ce61backed FUT Esports62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1248065%52 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00cb…3992backed FUT Esports71c198.83$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.166536.9%24 W · 41 L-9.3wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FUT Esports48c198.31$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.075,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed FUT Esports49c177.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861,24841.3%516 W · 732 L+5.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Heroic37c177$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.351,30526.4%345 W · 960 L-89.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b2b…d4d3backed Heroic28c175.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.547153.5%38 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8e…c29ebacked FUT Esports31c163.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5628443.7%124 W · 160 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe902…eda4backed FUT Esports61c142.62$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877755.8%43 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4415…b335backed FUT Esports44c139.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.99825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-61.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Heroic36c138.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7612027.5%33 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e2…2157backed FUT Esports62c132.23$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Heroic41c126.37$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3738844.6%173 W · 215 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked FUT Esports30c122.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.899152.7%48 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…f6bfbacked FUT Esports36c118.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.826346%29 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a0a…1759backed FUT Esports27c112.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked FUT Esports62c112$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1260147.4%285 W · 316 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Heroic54c111.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.662350.9%317 W · 306 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb04f…5822backed FUT Esports61c107.25$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.424257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed FUT Esports67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.846344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed FUT Esports67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6729244.5%130 W · 162 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d822backed FUT Esports50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc1e…07d1backed FUT Esports49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492373.9%17 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed FUT Esports61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6163541.1%261 W · 374 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa019…c220backed FUT Esports58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.221437.9%81 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed FUT Esports60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6041645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bfa…e053backed Heroic37c97.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.562250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked FUT Esports54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053859.3%319 W · 219 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Heroic49c92.03$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0353737.1%199 W · 338 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked FUT Esports55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021354.5%116 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed FUT Esports64c87.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0780744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Heroic48c83.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7215749%77 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d82…0d44backed FUT Esports61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014056.4%79 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed FUT Esports61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052649%258 W · 268 L-27.8wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed FUT Esports69c79.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5515738.2%60 W · 97 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06c4…9983backed FUT Esports26c77.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf52f…b2f5backed FUT Esports59c76.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.697364.4%47 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked FUT Esports55c74.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.972451.2%371 W · 353 L+29.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ffe…5cdebacked FUT Esports55c72.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked FUT Esports26c71.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5759647.3%282 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Heroic46c67.62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5229547.8%141 W · 154 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef07…5bd2backed FUT Esports44c66.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297843.6%34 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…3ca0backed Heroic40c61.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.992653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.