Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62c179b0eed35a775d72663836578040d8e7f1870a15be45a758cbed623ae5c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Up | 22c | 3,164$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.41 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed Down | 78c | 2,973$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Up | 26c | 2,060$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.51 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Up | 24c | 1,588$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.03 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Up | 23c | 1,050$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.48 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Up | 25c | 820.42$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.7 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Down | 67c | 804.33$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.83 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Down | 78c | 800$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 23c | 708.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.54 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Down | 78c | 630.31$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Up | 17c | 531.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Down | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Up | 18c | 340.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Up | 25c | 326.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Up | 28c | 324.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Down | 77c | 302$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…3cafbacked Down | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Up | 29c | 277.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 34c | 269.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…6485backed Up | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 19c | 185.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Down | 67c | 150.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe11e…2230backed Down | 67c | 148.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…98cebacked Down | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 14c | 128.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Up | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 78c | 119.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Down | 65c | 108$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 33cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…4781backed Up | 24c | 106.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Down | 76c | 102.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Up | 25c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe576…5e02backed Down | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Down | 63c | 88.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Up | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Up | 37c | 78.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Up | 33c | 64.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Up | 31c | 60.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…0333backed Up | 27c | 59.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Down | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Up | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Up | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Up | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89e…5522backed Down | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Up | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Up | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Down | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…a452backed Down | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca2…1aa0backed Down | 77c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…2693backed Down | 78c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Down | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf149…21b9backed Down | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…4c94backed Down | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.