NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65fa7cd8e9227b106cd6c164c0d5850bea8f5b49b0ce61e4868e0bd5da389233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Pistons | 57c | 1,043$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.41 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Cavaliers | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…3713backed Cavaliers | 43c | 361.09$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…a7fabacked Cavaliers | 16c | 305.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cavaliers | 41c | 283.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Cavaliers | 37c | 266.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…8129backed Pistons | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Pistons | 57c | 244.95$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Cavaliers | 43c | 161.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pistons | 64c | 145.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers | 41c | 136.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Pistons | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 114.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers | 15c | 81.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Cavaliers | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…b4dabacked Cavaliers | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…67e4backed Pistons | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Cavaliers | 43c | 49.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 336 | 32.4%109 W · 227 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pistons | 57c | 48.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cavaliers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Pistons | 59c | 44.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pistons | 56c | 41.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cavaliers | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cavaliers | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Pistons | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.