TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,061 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x39fc…e2f2backed Pistons47c1,854$864 inWon+$989.9534255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers55c872$484 inLost-$483.91,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Cavaliers50c800$400 inLost-$40016251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Cavaliers30c222$67 inLost-$67.161,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15db…1da8backed Cavaliers42c71.9$30 inLost-$3011648.3%56 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Cavaliers25c67.74$17 inLost-$16.7216033.1%53 W · 107 L-17.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Pistons44c57.27$25 inWon+$32.0727553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Pistons48c40.38$19 inWon+$2169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Pistons47c40$19 inWon+$21.489850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b8…d4b3backed Cavaliers52c21.15$11 inLost-$113754.1%20 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed Cavaliers55c20$11 inLost-$116737.3%25 W · 42 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers56c19$11 inLost-$10.642,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.