NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88b99527b6120b05a53242b7d02e9d3425a6ac211909ce09ccb5ac60e8d8d53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cavaliers | 49c | 7,337$3,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,595.25 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Pistons | 49c | 6,648$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.17 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pistons | 48c | 4,724$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.01 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Cavaliers | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Cavaliers | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…47e7backed Pistons | 21c | 1,059$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…2c21backed Cavaliers | 57c | 896$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Pistons | 42c | 790$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.64 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Cavaliers | 60c | 501.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Pistons | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Cavaliers | 76c | 499.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons | 43c | 468.15$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.37 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 453.05$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.18 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Pistons | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Cavaliers | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Pistons | 46c | 400$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Cavaliers | 15c | 393$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 164 | 29.9%49 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Cavaliers | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 277 | 45.8%127 W · 150 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Pistons | 24c | 327.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Cavaliers | 48c | 305.92$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pistons | 17c | 304$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.57 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers | 69c | 250.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.21 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Cavaliers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…16e6backed Cavaliers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Pistons | 24c | 172.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Pistons | 45c | 156.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 154.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pistons | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Cavaliers | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cavaliers | 52c | 122.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Cavaliers | 57c | 116.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 268 | 24.6%66 W · 202 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cavaliers | 50c | 111.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 341 | 69.5%237 W · 104 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Pistons | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a3afbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Pistons | 50c | 97.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Cavaliers | 80c | 92.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…4a06backed Cavaliers | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Cavaliers | 58c | 53.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Pistons | 45c | 45.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Cavaliers | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Pistons | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Cavaliers | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…ffbebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 38.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pistons | 44c | 37.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Cavaliers | 49c | 34.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…871abacked Cavaliers | 57c | 34.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Pistons | 70c | 33.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Pistons | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…67b9backed Pistons | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cavaliers | 59c | 27.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 160 | 33.1%53 W · 107 L | -17.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Pistons | 52c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.8wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Cavaliers | 54c | 24.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…2ba5backed Cavaliers | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Cavaliers | 47c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.