NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78319815a65f452e723f01caea593559a9444f4b283412ba3dbded80dfdf2e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d93…2cf1backed Under | 56c | 3,510$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.57 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 3,388$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.18 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 2,548$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.92 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 45c | 1,870$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.56 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 48c | 1,597$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.03 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 1,339$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.17 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…8a01backed Over | 50c | 1,278$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.85 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Over | 5c | 1,130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 164 | 29.9%49 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed Under | 52c | 1,095$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…073dbacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…59abbacked Over | 47c | 999.34$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.69 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 904.11$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.85 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…6ba5backed Under | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 581$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.12 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 440.18$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 64c | 398.9$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a1…20b5backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 49c | 303.01$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Over | 47c | 165.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…a825backed Over | 26c | 129.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 41c | 129.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 41c | 129.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 41c | 129.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 41c | 129.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 41c | 128.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Over | 48c | 118.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 110.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…cf50backed Over | 43c | 106.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Under | 53c | 95.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 75c | 88.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 73c | 71.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 40c | 55.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 160 | 33.1%53 W · 107 L | -17.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…320fbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b36…56cebacked Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…975cbacked Over | 48c | 36.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…ecc5backed Under | 66c | 36.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…40b0backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…e64cbacked Under | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 74c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 61c | 30.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…9c34backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…f8e3backed Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…9747backed Over | 48c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 24.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…6e10backed Under | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 19.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.