TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

James Harden: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,215 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd46e…d10dbacked Yes58c420.2$242 inLost-$2421020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-58.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No42c299.99$126 inWon+$173.9956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed No42c262.98$110 inWon+$152.531136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No44c229.99$101 inWon+$128.7978652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes56c125$70 inLost-$7034849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No36c112.78$41 inWon+$72.181,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed No44c103$46 inWon+$57.2749852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes64c78.23$50 inLost-$5017356.6%98 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf2…740bbacked Yes58c73.78$43 inLost-$42.7918040.6%73 W · 107 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes64c48.55$31 inLost-$317153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes56c45.02$25 inLost-$2566046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Yes58c41.38$24 inLost-$2421843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No44c37.71$17 inWon+$21.0833356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No41c37.48$15 inWon+$22.126147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes55c36.09$20 inLost-$2030055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9816…8ff4backed Yes57c29.74$17 inLost-$176558.5%38 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7385…0199backed Yes58c25.86$15 inLost-$154864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e0…d1cebacked No44c22.73$10 inWon+$12.731216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-61.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes56c21.55$12 inLost-$1227539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b8…ab1fbacked Yes58c19.63$11 inLost-$11.39955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.