NBA · resolved market
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b77971959788979c1c74603e1d8ea3a1bed90e20590b83b8ae25bdcd7d03415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 47c | 1,169$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.32 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…3614backed Yes | 55c | 642.92$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.05 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 48c | 399.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 45c | 181.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…8afbbacked Yes | 55c | 177.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +9.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 51c | 153.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…5b93backed Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 52c | 109.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 50c | 109.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 46c | 105.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed Yes | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 49c | 63.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 140 | 59.3%83 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed No | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…acfabacked Yes | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked No | 51c | 39.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0199backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed No | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 48c | 21.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.