NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aa013b6ae34b9b764f954f743348e0f0c3cabf137b88919530f211ffa327345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 46c | 2,154$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 73c | 1,980$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.6 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 28c | 1,235$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.31 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 1,147$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.43 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 19c | 429.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Over | 37c | 305.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Over | 39c | 286.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Over | 43c | 237.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…2c38backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 36c | 158.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 36c | 158.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 36c | 158.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 36c | 158.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 76c | 87.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Under | 61c | 83.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 38c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Under | 62c | 49.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked Under | 65c | 46.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 67c | 40.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 57c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…61fcbacked Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 64c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…f368backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7e36backed Under | 80c | 14.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.