TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,667 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…8f79backed No45c1,406$633 inWon+$773.421,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f1…0f6bbacked Yes55c999.98$550 inLost-$549.992962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Yes55c499.99$275 inLost-$274.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No50c400$200 inWon+$20056050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes50c396.43$198 inLost-$198.2293145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No54c299.99$162 inWon+$13839864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes46c173.91$80 inLost-$8066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8390…3773backed Yes46c163.06$75 inLost-$74.864553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No50c107.11$54 inWon+$53.1926755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No48c79.99$38 inWon+$41.643752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes45c70.82$32 inLost-$31.8853842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf89…0fb1backed No54c55.8$30 inWon+$25.83554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Yes52c53.07$28 inLost-$27.612347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1815…e217backed No56c50$28 inWon+$228855.7%49 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes49c40.51$20 inLost-$19.6633049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e8e…6461backed Yes42c31.2$13 inLost-$13.1540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…f93fbacked Yes52c25$13 inLost-$135137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab5b…9b70backed Yes55c18.24$10 inLost-$10.033935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.