NBA · resolved market
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2657c5dab1765a88a63ec30328998b13f6fc0ff47a85e7f3efe7ac3e9503da2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 50c | 1,340$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.03 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 49c | 997.64$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.8 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 53c | 731.91$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb5…91d7backed Yes | 51c | 634.53$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 53c | 587.22$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed No | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 51c | 324.67$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked No | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 47c | 236.41$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 47c | 196$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1495…d3f9backed Yes | 52c | 193.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 51c | 141.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…baa1backed No | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked No | 51c | 120.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 50c | 117.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 47c | 79.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 50c | 62.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…c160backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…f29abacked No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Yes | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 135 | 39.3%53 W · 82 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Yes | 53c | 40.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed No | 51c | 23.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…a875backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.