NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd82991f8e6618e81c8e7d2ec1d6d4f03ef407b6b0c5218dd0ee3a04d6240d13a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Over | 55c | 11,491$6,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,170.73 | 344 | 56.7%195 W · 149 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 45c | 4,372$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.51 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 3,850$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.53 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 2,696$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.24 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 50c | 1,835$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.8 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 39c | 1,749$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.01 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 42c | 648$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.25 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 45c | 639$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.55 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 56c | 505$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.15 | 253 | 60.1%152 W · 101 L | +26.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Over | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Over | 59c | 340.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.62 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +6.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 45c | 291.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.97 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…c45dbacked Over | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Over | 52c | 199.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…7800backed Over | 57c | 115.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 42c | 91.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…d843backed Over | 55c | 91.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 45c | 78.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 52c | 76.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 67.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 41c | 58.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…40b0backed Over | 59c | 56.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 45c | 49.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Under | 34c | 46.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 38.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 60c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…3050backed Over | 65c | 30.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5this page
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.