TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 105.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,829 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d1a…0df6backed Over50c5,044$2,522 inLost-$2,522.0820744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Under50c5,025$2,513 inWon+$2,512.56651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under52c2,500$1,300 inWon+$1,20014538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over48c2,031$975 inLost-$974.750346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bf…6df9backed Under52c952.6$493 inWon+$459.226261.3%38 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under50c517.09$259 inWon+$258.5535049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b3…7650backed Over50c400$200 inLost-$2005543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacab…4e20backed Over51c333.33$170 inLost-$170520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under51c317.09$162 inWon+$155.378354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfc…4516backed Over38c315$120 inLost-$120728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over50c300$150 inLost-$1501,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ad…365abacked Over51c290.2$148 inLost-$1483148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68e9…7a6abacked Over41c280$116 inLost-$1161631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under50c251.61$126 inWon+$125.452,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Over48c231.25$111 inLost-$1114951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3824backed Over50c199.02$100 inLost-$10015149.7%75 W · 76 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Under55c189$104 inWon+$85.0520558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Under50c166$83 inWon+$837451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Over51c162.38$83 inLost-$82.817848.7%38 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over48c112$54 inLost-$53.7656843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Over50c103.5$52 inLost-$51.7542740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$5095548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Over51c100$51 inLost-$5137253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e4e…2564backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…0b46backed Under51c98.04$50 inWon+$48.048149.4%40 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Under52c48.08$25 inWon+$23.083056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Over50c43.84$22 inLost-$21.898744.8%39 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x584d…d358backed Under54c41.67$22 inWon+$19.177970.9%56 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe3e7…a322backed Under52c41.15$21 inWon+$19.756157.4%35 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over49c40.8$20 inLost-$19.9921642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1509…0894backed Over50c40$20 inLost-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9999…0654backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost-$201650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab5b…9b70backed Over51c24.43$12 inLost-$12.463935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Over50c20$10 inLost-$101435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.