Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dd86ae70f458e432ae802426c7364b167115c70d678a5c7cba7d9b357e1c8df

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $95,942
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $127,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,942 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	27c	12,338$3,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,297.74	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Under	1c	12,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	49	14.3%7 W · 42 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+76.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	30c	4,752$1,417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,417.36	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	45c	2,340$1,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,290.74	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	138	37%51 W · 87 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	16c	1,932$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.14	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under	17c	1,627$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.66	108	50.9%55 W · 53 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae5…8342backed Under	66c	1,600$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055.99	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	65cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	16c	1,500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under	39c	1,165$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.25	202	39.6%80 W · 122 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…86d2backed Under	58c	1,150$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfccd…b1afbacked Under	3c	1,130$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Over	55c	1,107$609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.27	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+4.1wins	+0.22per pick	52cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under	15c	1,104$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.54	359	41.5%149 W · 210 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…6953backed Under	42c	909.62$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.04	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Under	46c	869.13$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.8	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb41b…b786backed Under	18c	833.33$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ec…7f1cbacked Over	51c	740$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.6	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+177.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	54c	499.96$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.98	293	43.7%128 W · 165 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed Over	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	43c	356$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.25	457	51.2%234 W · 223 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Under	25c	318.96$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.78	845	49%414 W · 431 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5204…1ca0backed Over	66c	303.03$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.03	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over	51c	291.39$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.39	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Over	39c	256.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.41	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over	45c	224.44$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.44	99	58.6%58 W · 41 L	+7.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x460d…e2fabacked Under	31c	193.55$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b23…bbb5backed Under	17c	181.14$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	105	39%41 W · 64 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under	17c	180.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	541	28.3%153 W · 388 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	16c	178.42$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.95	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	38c	171.9$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.16	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Under	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Under	66c	152$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.32	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under	32c	151.56$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x673e…e66abacked Over	66c	151.52$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	67c	149.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.25	206	44.7%92 W · 114 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Over	67c	148$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.84	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-4.1wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	51c	135$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf94c…8a42backed Under	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab3…c6bbbacked Under	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa709…4d86backed Under	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b3…07f2backed Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1bf…aba5backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024e…2e48backed Over	39c	100$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	74	40.5%30 W · 44 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5b17backed Over	44c	91.89$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.46	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae1e…d204backed Over	34c	87.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.75	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.25per pick	37cpaid	+190.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over	60c	83.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	102	52.9%54 W · 48 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d35…7f29backed Under	55c	75.7$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.93	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Over	66c	75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	77	42.9%33 W · 44 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Over	52c	66.02$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.4	132	49.2%65 W · 67 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x680b…276abacked Over	45c	63.52$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.91	42	50%21 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024f…5857backed Over	65c	61.54$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.54	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…947dbacked Over	42c	60$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.8	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…253cbacked Over	54c	56.6$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.9	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca96…a629backed Over	74c	53.99$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	10	50%5 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79dd…9889backed Over	55c	50.91$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.91	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…bce6backed Over	45c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+75.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0052…4d9ebacked Over	34c	50$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	46	82.6%38 W · 8 L	+9.4wins	+0.20per pick	62cpaid	+41.7%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa7e3…395cbacked Over	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+7.2wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecc6…a1c4backed Over	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over	55c	44.96$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.23	184	44.6%82 W · 102 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Over	49c	40.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.56	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa384…f6e4backed Over	73c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc8…8198backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	110	60.9%67 W · 43 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Over	49c	36.11$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.57	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over	60c	34$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.6	82	59.8%49 W · 33 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	66cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbb6…26efbacked Over	38c	32$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.72	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.62per pick	38cpaid	+160.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe21…2f9cbacked Over	76c	28.25$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.75	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	64cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Over	39c	26.58$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.31	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc20…f00dbacked Over	47c	23.77$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.52	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+137.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 1.5this page
Manchester United vs. West Ham: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 2.5Under won
Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Manchester United (-1.5)West Ham won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event