TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Egyptof IR Iran, Egypt
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$366,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,821 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed IR Iran1c18,003$205 inLost-$204.684,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed IR Iran1c6,057$62 inLost-$61.742,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked IR Iran2c4,390$79 inLost-$79.0265737.4%246 W · 411 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed IR Iran1c3,479$38 inLost-$38.274,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed IR Iran2c2,191$35 inLost-$34.832,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55c8…b64bbacked IR Iran2c1,293$21 inLost-$20.977745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked IR Iran1c1,194$16 inLost-$16.221,71135.2%603 W · 1,108 L-68.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed IR Iran1c1,110$13 inLost-$12.931,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad1…35d0backed IR Iran2c1,044$25 inLost-$25478.5%4 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked IR Iran3c872$22 inLost-$21.851315.6%80 W · 433 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed IR Iran2c827.26$16 inLost-$15.922,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed IR Iran2c731.11$11 inLost-$11.2643230.1%130 W · 302 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.