Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73c435b9fc1bbb0cc2fc999fd1a0c29b2a24851f7145df77ec7922c241ee9f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Yes | 27c | 37,037$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 73c | 26,186$19,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,070.25 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…0f0dbacked No | 74c | 9,995$7,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…5550backed Yes | 26c | 9,995$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 73c | 8,400$6,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.06 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 19c | 3,296$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 73c | 1,521$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.57 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…58f1backed Yes | 26c | 941.13$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…4ba7backed Yes | 26c | 890$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…1678backed Yes | 15c | 682.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 73c | 598.11$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.49 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 75c | 533.25$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…f2aebacked No | 74c | 490$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 26c | 445.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 26c | 415$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 26c | 383.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 74c | 361$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…ebbcbacked No | 74c | 315$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 272$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked No | 74c | 245.56$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 25c | 196.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 183.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…d31ebacked No | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 73c | 174.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 12c | 160.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 24c | 103.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…fe13backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…874abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…fed3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 76c | 95.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 25c | 91.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 24c | 90.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Yes | 25c | 86.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Yes | 25c | 79.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…7d54backed No | 75c | 66.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…76bebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…1b7fbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…019fbacked Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Chelsea end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-11?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.