Spread: Spain (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b5afd959f7f7427e7f646d0a52170063534b9309d51e4945c856a4705e62d8b

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Iraqof Spain, Iraq
Resolved: Jun 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,692 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Iraq	49c	9,337$4,557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,780.1	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Iraq	32c	5,436$1,724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,711.81	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Spain	33c	4,917$1,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,608.03	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Spain	27c	3,931$1,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,063.41	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb7…3644backed Spain	79c	3,810$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	138	47.1%65 W · 73 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Spain	60c	3,621$2,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,165.04	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Iraq	19c	2,213$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,786.44	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Spain	55c	1,977$1,094 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,093.98	99	29.3%29 W · 70 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Spain	52c	1,557$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.85	67	38.8%26 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Iraq	21c	1,514$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,195.35	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d85…197fbacked Iraq	46c	1,500$696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803.74	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Spain	78c	1,359$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060.01	114	43%49 W · 65 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Spain	78c	1,277$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	304	65.1%198 W · 106 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Iraq	21c	1,190$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940.1	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Iraq	21c	1,190$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$939.85	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Spain	80c	1,000$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	60	55%33 W · 27 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Spain	77c	968.12$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	225	51.6%116 W · 109 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9512…a3d7backed Iraq	44c	959.89$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.06	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+3.1wins	+0.22per pick	57cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Iraq	49c	896.07$439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.58	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20b4…bfa2backed Iraq	34c	859.09$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$567	82	35.4%29 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eee…d930backed Spain	75c	855.27$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.45	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-4.7wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Iraq	45c	810.18$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.6	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc8…a613backed Spain	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	82	61%50 W · 32 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Spain	78c	641.03$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	302	20.2%61 W · 241 L	-15.6wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Iraq	46c	636.88$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.07	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Iraq	34c	629.49$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.52	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff6…d1fdbacked Spain	46c	575$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.5	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+129.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Spain	29c	541.67$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.51	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Iraq	74c	540.64$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.64	295	29.8%88 W · 207 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Spain	53c	509.43$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	283	26.5%75 W · 208 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Spain	18c	459.42$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.23	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f9f…2a51backed Spain	78c	382.56$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	72	63.9%46 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfab4…564fbacked Iraq	48c	357.96$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.14	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Spain	78c	350$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273	673	54.7%368 W · 305 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Iraq	19c	278.72$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.21	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Iraq	20c	234.49$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.6	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b5…c111backed Spain	75c	225.33$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked Spain	78c	192.31$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04c6…3610backed Spain	53c	173.58$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Iraq	22c	161.82$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.22	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Iraq	22c	150$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117	397	46.3%184 W · 213 L	-28.9wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Spain	57c	148.37$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.57	101	60.4%61 W · 40 L	+11.2wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+22%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Spain	52c	140$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.4	504	50.2%253 W · 251 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…374bbacked Spain	80c	138.75$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Iraq	22c	138.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.9	481	52.4%252 W · 229 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Spain	77c	129.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	396	48.7%193 W · 203 L	-23.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Spain	56c	128$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.68	76	34.2%26 W · 50 L	-5.8wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Iraq	20c	113.27$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.09	360	45.3%163 W · 197 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b7…3267backed Iraq	44c	105$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	270	58.1%157 W · 113 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Spain	38c	101.38$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.96	294	63.3%186 W · 108 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Spain	40c	100.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	363	49.3%179 W · 184 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Spain	78c	96.15$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	63	73%46 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	74cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Spain	53c	90.57$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	72	40.3%29 W · 43 L	+5.6wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Iraq	70c	86.38$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.35	311	49.5%154 W · 157 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Iraq	61c	85.25$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.59	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Iraq	39c	76.07$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.07	327	40.7%133 W · 194 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Iraq	20c	75.05$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.69	190	38.9%74 W · 116 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…b44ebacked Spain	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7079…58e8backed Spain	53c	50.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.94	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+30%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Spain	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	98	38.8%38 W · 60 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-31%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Spain	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	291	38.5%112 W · 179 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed Spain	73c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	105	68.6%72 W · 33 L	+9.2wins	+0.09per pick	60cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Spain	53c	46.06$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.41	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Iraq	40c	45.62$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.38	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Spain	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	153	41.2%63 W · 90 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Spain	59c	42.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	132	42.4%56 W · 76 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6481…b1bfbacked Spain	78c	38.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Iraq	67c	36.55$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	146	47.3%69 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9006…385abacked Spain	80c	34$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-6.4wins	-0.24per pick	68cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Spain	53c	33.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	333	45.3%151 W · 182 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed Spain	76c	33.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.17	421	26.4%111 W · 310 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef3a…dc6bbacked Iraq	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	138	38.4%53 W · 85 L	-8.6wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Spain	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	242	57.9%140 W · 102 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Iraq	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Spain	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Iraq	44c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.88	118	60.2%71 W · 47 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Iraq	56c	23.21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.14	475	46.1%219 W · 256 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb63a…7637backed Spain	78c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	236	65.3%154 W · 82 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe70…bb1dbacked Iraq	69c	17.86$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.54	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	66cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Spain	78c	16.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Spain (-1.5)this page
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5Under won
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5Under won
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Iraq won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event