TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f9f…2a51

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
193
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst Premier League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT7263.9%46 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 72 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+506.1%+$151.82
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$81.42
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
France vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.18
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$24.35
France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$30.29
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$105.41
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.76
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$21.36
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$34.75
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)backed Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Spread: France (-2.5)backed Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.06
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$89.61
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$53.16
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$75.86
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$52.37
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$18.26
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$45.11
Showing 25 of 72 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT5863.8%37 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed Valencia CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$35.27
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.15
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,910Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$698.85
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$375
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+56.9%+$910
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+175.2%+$105.11
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+86.1%+$232.42
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,139Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+71.7%+$816.8
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+75.3%+$329.41
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed Getafe CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.98
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.09
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)backed Real Betis Balompié · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.07
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$374.63
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,470Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$617.5
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$231
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$541Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$190.23
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,008.03
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$72.21
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.35
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$582Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+100%+$582
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,942Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$629.74
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT4257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+139.4%+$459.86
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$694.92
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$119.44
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$356
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$315.79
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,106.56
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$959Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$613.13
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.49
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,644Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$1,345.24
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,610Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,610.5
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.29
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$511Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+127.2%+$650.1
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$103.17
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,474Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$1,887.51
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Will Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+300%+$90
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,884Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+27.2%+$1,057.12
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,335Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+38.1%+$889.65
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+85.2%+$127.78
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$409.09
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$369.86
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,497Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,497
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.4
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$159.65
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$534Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$473.98
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+84.5%+$84.49
All 13 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Club Bolívar win on 2025-09-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$131.79
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.