UFC · resolved market

UFC 326: Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cbed3afcfee6c1cee1c4cec08a624c9efaca4c9a4b4a922cc91bb12d9293aa4

Rebuilt 24 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Diyar Nurgozhayof Diyar Nurgozhay, Rafael Tobias
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $537,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537,959 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x07b8…8e25backed Rafael Tobias	61c	91,743$55,806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55,806.44	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	69,735$26,769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42,965.63	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Rafael Tobias	62c	40,000$24,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,800	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Diyar Nurgozhay	67c	37,866$25,278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,588.18	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	32,031$12,172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,859.22	96	36.5%35 W · 61 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	24,546$9,775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,771.36	75	28%21 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	22,084$8,613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,471.27	92	40.2%37 W · 55 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Rafael Tobias	60c	22,000$13,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,200	115	54.8%63 W · 52 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	20,000$7,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,299.99	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Rafael Tobias	25c	19,334$4,833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,832.59	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff0b…befabacked Rafael Tobias	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Rafael Tobias	62c	13,749$8,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,500	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	12,765$5,061 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,703.64	100	35%35 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	11,433$4,395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,037.79	145	51%74 W · 71 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Rafael Tobias	50c	9,507$4,754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,753.72	84	34.5%29 W · 55 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	9,100$3,572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,528.1	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	9,037$3,494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,542.64	67	38.8%26 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Rafael Tobias	61c	8,433$5,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,168.46	288	49.7%143 W · 145 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Rafael Tobias	61c	8,264$5,036 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,035.54	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Rafael Tobias	61c	8,200$5,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,001.99	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Rafael Tobias	61c	8,193$4,998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,997.77	40	72.5%29 W · 11 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	6,603$2,641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,961.97	52	73.1%38 W · 14 L	+8.1wins	+0.16per pick	57cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	6,142$2,457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,685.2	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Diyar Nurgozhay	46c	5,501$2,537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,963.53	167	46.1%77 W · 90 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Rafael Tobias	62c	5,000$3,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,100	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72e1…a45dbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	44c	4,680$2,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,638.45	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Rafael Tobias	51c	4,559$2,335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,335.47	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Diyar Nurgozhay	68c	4,352$2,959 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,393.18	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rafael Tobias	28c	4,305$1,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.81	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bcf…e964backed Diyar Nurgozhay	79c	3,786$2,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$787.11	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	74c	3,444$2,546 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$897.77	201	39.8%80 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	3,307$1,295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,011.89	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Rafael Tobias	62c	3,222$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Rafael Tobias	63c	3,200$2,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,015.99	267	43.8%117 W · 150 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Rafael Tobias	26c	2,918$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.15	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	+7.0wins	+0.10per pick	42cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6c9…396dbacked Rafael Tobias	62c	2,695$1,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,660	53	62.3%33 W · 20 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rafael Tobias	62c	2,655$1,635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,635.11	88	48.9%43 W · 45 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	2,589$998 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,591.32	300	39.3%118 W · 182 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rafael Tobias	62c	2,570$1,595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,595	83	60.2%50 W · 33 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Rafael Tobias	35c	2,561$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.98	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	2,523$970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,553.41	87	54%47 W · 40 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	2,499$974 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,524.22	117	46.2%54 W · 63 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	2,490$996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,494	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	2,400$936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,463.99	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Rafael Tobias	60c	2,248$1,349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,348.84	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	2,090$836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,253.96	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-10.9wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Rafael Tobias	38c	2,041$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.67	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	2,000$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,240	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	37c	2,000$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,259.74	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	1,966$747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,218.63	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Rafael Tobias	27c	1,448$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.31	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	-6.7wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfaa…3858backed Rafael Tobias	62c	1,371$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Rafael Tobias	55c	1,264$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.2	78	62.8%49 W · 29 L	+7.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+17%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Rafael Tobias	55c	1,212$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.54	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-3.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Rafael Tobias	61c	1,205$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$735	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Diyar Nurgozhay	62c	1,174$723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.41	224	38.4%86 W · 138 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Diyar Nurgozhay	36c	1,155$412 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$743.13	180	38.9%70 W · 110 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Rafael Tobias	40c	1,129$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.41	149	29.5%44 W · 105 L	-15.2wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	1,115$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$691.16	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Diyar Nurgozhay	55c	1,093$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.95	91	64.8%59 W · 32 L	+8.4wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	1,092$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$661.04	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Rafael Tobias	64c	1,091$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.1	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Diyar Nurgozhay	48c	1,087$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$567.97	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Rafael Tobias	62c	1,050$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Rafael Tobias	62c	1,000$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Rafael Tobias	59c	994$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.62	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Diyar Nurgozhay	37c	983.69$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$619.73	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-5.3wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	961.25$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$576.75	72	44.4%32 W · 40 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	954.25$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$577.1	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	850$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513	209	33.5%70 W · 139 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	846.98$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.82	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cc…021dbacked Rafael Tobias	61c	819.67$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Rafael Tobias	63c	799.89$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.93	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Rafael Tobias	6c	735.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.53	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	+10.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Rafael Tobias	7c	710.12$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.32	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	34cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	644.49$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390.79	155	40.6%63 W · 92 L	-7.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Rafael Tobias	60c	602$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.2	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	600$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$372	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Rafael Tobias	68c	588.41$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	65	69.2%45 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee7…6760backed Diyar Nurgozhay	32c	576.73$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.17	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	+4.5wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5887…b2a1backed Rafael Tobias	61c	575.41$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-4.8wins	-0.30per pick	42cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Rafael Tobias	61c	545.9$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f1…e373backed Rafael Tobias	62c	536.97$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Rafael Tobias	62c	514.97$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.44	145	43.4%63 W · 82 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b0…8da1backed Rafael Tobias	60c	503$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Rafael Tobias	60c	500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Diyar Nurgozhay	41c	497.56$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.56	60	63.3%38 W · 22 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Rafael Tobias	61c	491.8$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	61	59%36 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Diyar Nurgozhay	38c	488$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.56	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Rafael Tobias	60c	415.6$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.36	420	54%227 W · 193 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2b…34e4backed Rafael Tobias	23c	405$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.15	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-23%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe0…947cbacked Rafael Tobias	61c	403.95$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.82	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Rafael Tobias	62c	403.23$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Diyar Nurgozhay	40c	397.78$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.67	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Rafael Tobias	63c	393.33$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.8	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Diyar Nurgozhay	39c	389.8$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.41	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Rafael Tobias	34c	382.05$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.87	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Rafael Tobias	57c	370$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.06	124	49.2%61 W · 63 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Diyar Nurgozhay	41c	356.32$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.7	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Rafael Tobias	61c	327.87$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	89	50.6%45 W · 44 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC 326: Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)this page
O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
Will Rafael Tobias win by KO or TKO?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC 326: Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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