TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Orlando City SCof Inter Miami CF, Orlando City SC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,153 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5f9…87b0backed Orlando City SC45c38,084$17,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,949.489649%47 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Inter Miami CF55c15,880$8,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,73423858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed Orlando City SC45c9,106$4,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,008.4515647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Inter Miami CF55c6,231$3,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,428.223,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Inter Miami CF55c3,029$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66613553.3%72 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf003…08cdbacked Inter Miami CF55c2,373$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Inter Miami CF55c1,600$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88017258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Inter Miami CF55c1,418$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7808946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Inter Miami CF55c1,200$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66012263.1%77 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9869…1a45backed Inter Miami CF55c1,127$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62050%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Inter Miami CF55c1,091$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Inter Miami CF55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5508547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Inter Miami CF55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed Inter Miami CF55c901.6$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.8810960.6%66 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Inter Miami CF55c739.82$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.512661.1%77 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Inter Miami CF55c701.5$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8768150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Inter Miami CF55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33015858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Inter Miami CF55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Inter Miami CF25c539$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.753625%9 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Orlando City SC75c433$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2519347.2%91 W · 102 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Inter Miami CF55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x010f…6c1abacked Inter Miami CF55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Inter Miami CF59c345.76$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4258043.6%253 W · 327 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Inter Miami CF55c280.93$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.441,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3d…2e9dbacked Inter Miami CF55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Inter Miami CF55c269.53$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.242763%17 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Inter Miami CF55c262.79$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.528257.3%47 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Inter Miami CF55c260$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14316960.9%103 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Inter Miami CF55c260$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14314257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Inter Miami CF55c250.51$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7322263.1%140 W · 82 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Inter Miami CF55c239.28$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0597146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Inter Miami CF55c239$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4513948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Inter Miami CF55c234$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.791553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fcb…207cbacked Inter Miami CF55c233.87$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.611369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+55.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Inter Miami CF55c233.4$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.376847.1%32 W · 36 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Inter Miami CF55c228$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+64.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Orlando City SC45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2210853.7%58 W · 50 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Orlando City SC46c219.9$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7514129.8%42 W · 99 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Orlando City SC46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.395028%14 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Inter Miami CF66c210.3$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.447240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Inter Miami CF54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Inter Miami CF55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11013158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Inter Miami CF55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Inter Miami CF55c180$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9915060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Inter Miami CF55c160.03$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.155856.9%33 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Inter Miami CF55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8814459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Inter Miami CF55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8811759%69 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Inter Miami CF55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8812162%75 W · 46 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Inter Miami CF55c154.55$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ac…2096backed Orlando City SC33c149.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Inter Miami CF55c118.18$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6524859.3%147 W · 101 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Inter Miami CF55c116$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.89457.4%54 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Inter Miami CF55c115.62$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.676454.7%35 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Inter Miami CF66c114$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.568241.5%34 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Inter Miami CF55c105.36$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Orlando City SC46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Orlando City SC39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6125934.4%89 W · 170 L-28.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Inter Miami CF54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5414660.3%88 W · 58 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Inter Miami CF55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5514459.7%86 W · 58 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9531…18ffbacked Inter Miami CF55c98.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5440%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Inter Miami CF55c96.04$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8210755.1%59 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Inter Miami CF55c95.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.587031.4%22 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Inter Miami CF55c90.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8219255.2%106 W · 86 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Inter Miami CF55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Inter Miami CF55c86.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5216955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Inter Miami CF74c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1936051.9%187 W · 173 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Orlando City SC45c74.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.622352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3c…fc78backed Inter Miami CF59c74.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1744…b131backed Inter Miami CF55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Orlando City SC46c66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.645240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Inter Miami CF55c60.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.35257.7%30 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Inter Miami CF55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3315259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Inter Miami CF55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3313461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Inter Miami CF54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.413560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5012…4d3ebacked Inter Miami CF55c59.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.562860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Inter Miami CF55c51.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2715458.4%90 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Inter Miami CF55c50.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.613661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Inter Miami CF55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.57953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Inter Miami CF54c49.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9711854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Inter Miami CF55c43.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6619560%117 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Inter Miami CF55c43.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6612254.9%67 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7dc…460fbacked Inter Miami CF55c41.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Inter Miami CF55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228469%58 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+24.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Inter Miami CF55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229058.9%53 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bdf…5761backed Inter Miami CF55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Inter Miami CF55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6628…b24abacked Inter Miami CF55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+49.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Inter Miami CF56c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.168942.7%38 W · 51 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Inter Miami CF55c35.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7410957.8%63 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Inter Miami CF65c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7530957%176 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Orlando City SC44c32.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3442947.1%202 W · 227 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Inter Miami CF54c32.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.58540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-46.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Inter Miami CF55c30.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.561361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Inter Miami CF55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.513557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Inter Miami CF55c27.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1914151.8%73 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff66…39cfbacked Inter Miami CF56c27.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Inter Miami CF55c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.976155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0a…ed66backed Inter Miami CF56c26.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3aa7…303dbacked Inter Miami CF55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.851776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Inter Miami CF56c20.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5526150.2%131 W · 130 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.