F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dfe73c062b42bc906c4b8af7a79826d31a5444f138005e0df5b228c41c4f597
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 9c | 12,763$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.05 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 10c | 11,541$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.37 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…176bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Yes | 2c | 3,448$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +398.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,852$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7566…ae05backed Yes | 9c | 2,842$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 8c | 2,671$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8870…6578backed Yes | 3c | 2,508$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 5c | 2,374$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…9cb5backed Yes | 9c | 2,352$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 4c | 2,253$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…7285backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…c38abacked Yes | 4c | 1,294$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,249$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 6c | 1,240$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 7c | 1,209$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…8af5backed Yes | 10c | 1,206$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 8c | 1,048$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,012$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…51ccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…74bbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 7c | 989.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 905$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…7829backed Yes | 9c | 904$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 5c | 891.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed Yes | 7c | 890.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes | 10c | 838$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 6c | 800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 9c | 688$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 7c | 681.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…532fbacked Yes | 5c | 666.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 9c | 600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…db44backed Yes | 9c | 587.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…26ebbacked Yes | 3c | 563$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…499ebacked Yes | 10c | 558.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…6bfdbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…c251backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Yes | 7c | 485.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b1…d47ebacked Yes | 7c | 470.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…913dbacked Yes | 10c | 430$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 4c | 411.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Yes | 7c | 403.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…a732backed Yes | 5c | 392.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9a…b5ecbacked Yes | 6c | 339$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…cd6fbacked Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 11c | 320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd77…ed22backed Yes | 4c | 299.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f2…f6c4backed Yes | 9c | 281.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…e1fabacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +96%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…215fbacked Yes | 7c | 257.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719c…b635backed Yes | 10c | 256.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…63c7backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +97%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 6c | 233.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 7c | 229.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…b124backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…0b8fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…22aabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 31cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…2b55backed Yes | 7c | 198.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…8728backed Yes | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7347backed Yes | 15c | 107.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…1d87backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 19c | 86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.