CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Playoffs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e49ff47eae15af8b1d19b14be564478b0d7bea850a3912d7a15865f06835eb7

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Imperialof Imperial, ALKA
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $85,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,192 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed ALKA	15c	10,975$1,666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,666.35	2,626	30.9%812 W · 1,814 L	-105.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed ALKA	18c	3,620$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.6	883	30.7%271 W · 612 L	-63.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed ALKA	7c	3,185$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.05	2,326	45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L	-62.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed ALKA	15c	3,051$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.52	207	45.9%95 W · 112 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ALKA	15c	2,738$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.2	1,579	29.7%469 W · 1,110 L	-86.9wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ALKA	17c	2,678$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.03	5,287	31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L	-383.3wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3515…ae25backed ALKA	12c	2,267$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.12	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed ALKA	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	574	0%0 W · 574 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed ALKA	17c	1,999$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.83	112	49.1%55 W · 57 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ALKA	19c	1,725$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.18	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed ALKA	14c	1,620$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.59	79	44.3%35 W · 44 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ALKA	12c	1,575$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.88	3,459	29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L	-279.9wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7380…9019backed ALKA	14c	1,107$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.86	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-33%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked ALKA	21c	1,092$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.86	1,011	52.3%529 W · 482 L	+27.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed ALKA	14c	1,071$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	388	35.6%138 W · 250 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed ALKA	13c	1,033$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.04	336	27.7%93 W · 243 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed ALKA	13c	950.15$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.52	215	45.6%98 W · 117 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked ALKA	11c	848$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.76	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412d…18c5backed Imperial	74c	769.33$571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.67	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed ALKA	17c	723.52$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.38	405	42%170 W · 235 L	-10.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ALKA	17c	719$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.89	2,776	37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L	-140.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Imperial	80c	707.25$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.66	1,513	57.2%865 W · 648 L	+65.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked ALKA	19c	700$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	583	43.6%254 W · 329 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed ALKA	13c	672.55$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.43	371	45.6%169 W · 202 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked ALKA	5c	650$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.96	163	11.7%19 W · 144 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed ALKA	15c	650$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	380	52.6%200 W · 180 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ALKA	14c	647.05$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.94	2,774	24.5%681 W · 2,093 L	-295.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x378c…14b8backed ALKA	12c	605.83$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.7	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked ALKA	16c	602.98$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	380	32.1%122 W · 258 L	-18.7wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57bf…e75abacked ALKA	16c	597.29$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.91	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked ALKA	13c	571.49$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.03	1,078	32%345 W · 733 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed ALKA	13c	500.02$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.86	482	40%193 W · 289 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ALKA	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2,522	43%1,085 W · 1,437 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed ALKA	14c	471.1$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.24	126	27%34 W · 92 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked ALKA	16c	469.99$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.2	351	31.1%109 W · 242 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed ALKA	15c	459.11$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.86	284	34.9%99 W · 185 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked ALKA	18c	445.71$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.89	758	33.4%253 W · 505 L	-48.9wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-31%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6758…baecbacked ALKA	11c	438.36$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.22	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked ALKA	14c	437.05$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.53	1,630	43.2%704 W · 926 L	-32.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed ALKA	12c	381$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.72	170	38.8%66 W · 104 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked ALKA	12c	373.75$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.85	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ALKA	18c	363.04$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.85	3,910	36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L	-197.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked ALKA	19c	344.72$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.21	1,302	41.2%536 W · 766 L	-50.1wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed ALKA	23c	331$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.03	754	38.9%293 W · 461 L	-38.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed ALKA	14c	309.21$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.6	77	26%20 W · 57 L	-8.1wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34af…3bbfbacked ALKA	16c	305.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked ALKA	12c	291.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	150	47.3%71 W · 79 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ALKA	13c	290.76$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.15	4,933	37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L	-249.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ALKA	21c	286$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.13	2,136	42.9%916 W · 1,220 L	-68.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed ALKA	11c	279.86$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.78	292	46.9%137 W · 155 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked ALKA	19c	249.44$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.38	630	38.6%243 W · 387 L	-26.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed ALKA	16c	233.98$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.83	1,407	38.9%547 W · 860 L	-41.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Imperial	80c	197$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.35	1,676	51.1%857 W · 819 L	+21.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f07…24a0backed ALKA	13c	196.03$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	45cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ALKA	15c	191.51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.67	2,622	47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L	-33.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d6…e7acbacked ALKA	13c	184.82$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked ALKA	13c	174.73$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.69	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ALKA	16c	166.73$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	2,473	34.6%855 W · 1,618 L	-188.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked ALKA	15c	161.6$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	512	52.1%267 W · 245 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…fc74backed ALKA	14c	157.55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	308	31.2%96 W · 212 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc620…7a70backed ALKA	9c	157.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	155	40%62 W · 93 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…daa2backed ALKA	20c	152.16$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked ALKA	10c	147$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	1,591	46.6%741 W · 850 L	+30.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed ALKA	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked ALKA	13c	132.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	200	45%90 W · 110 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked ALKA	22c	132$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	1,848	41.7%770 W · 1,078 L	-69.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6385…2afabacked ALKA	13c	125.8$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	415	16.6%69 W · 346 L	-36.5wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ALKA	20c	121$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.71	2,349	42.5%998 W · 1,351 L	-72.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf21…667bbacked ALKA	13c	120$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fe…311abacked ALKA	15c	119.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+4.1wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed ALKA	14c	111$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	256	43.4%111 W · 145 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x234e…1160backed ALKA	17c	104.4$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.23	414	37%153 W · 261 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed ALKA	20c	100.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	297	31%92 W · 205 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed ALKA	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	216	36.1%78 W · 138 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8174…be40backed ALKA	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ed1…908cbacked ALKA	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	206	37.9%78 W · 128 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x884b…661cbacked ALKA	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	94	29.8%28 W · 66 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked ALKA	23c	96.26$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	304	50.7%154 W · 150 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed ALKA	12c	88.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	1,618	46.8%758 W · 860 L	-28.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed ALKA	23c	85.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	470	53.2%250 W · 220 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed ALKA	19c	81.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.53	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Imperial	79c	62.86$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.22	664	36.6%243 W · 421 L	-35.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Imperial	79c	53.57$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.12	2,110	47.2%995 W · 1,115 L	-62.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f3…ac83backed ALKA	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Imperial	79c	49$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.29	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked ALKA	22c	47.62$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	850	54.4%462 W · 388 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ALKA	24c	43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	2,362	46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L	-53.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…88dfbacked Imperial	79c	13.16$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.76	51	66.7%34 W · 17 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Playoffsthis page
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA - Map 1 WinnerImperial won
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA - Map 2 WinnerImperial won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5Under won
Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs ALKA (+1.5)Imperial won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Playoffs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event