Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e508ebc36dcff88883ca4134648726032a04f83eac62cb7e9e90dcf9cd91ddd

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $97,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $104,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,250 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3a9c…0ad0backed Yes	0c	21,311$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.93	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,807$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.46	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	1c	4,427$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.01	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x165d…121cbacked Yes	3c	3,750$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-39%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	2,200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c8…8321backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed Yes	2c	1,994$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.92	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	2c	980.71$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a8…1fdbbacked Yes	3c	968.57$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d4…0a9cbacked Yes	3c	867.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c08…d3c8backed Yes	2c	523.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	134	37.3%50 W · 84 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4513…fe5ebacked Yes	3c	286$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event