Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3cd6f2687376e2fc50563b4c48213b87bee8af5b8f047a6b1b136b7d9fbc90a

Rebuilt 25 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $81,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,668 — the venue’s figure.

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Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0923…bd50backed Yes	15c	6,602$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-78%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcc…8bf7backed Yes	13c	5,404$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…e4e0backed Yes	13c	4,501$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	12c	2,700$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.67	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd955…bf12backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf945…9553backed Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	12c	2,000$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.88	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	10c	1,255$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.44	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d32…98c6backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	60	40%24 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28fd…4292backed Yes	14c	857.14$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed Yes	11c	850$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	76	21.1%16 W · 60 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	12c	805.74$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.4	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd312…4a63backed Yes	13c	802.43$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.93	56	57.1%32 W · 24 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf59…1064backed Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…149ebacked Yes	14c	729.29$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828f…fa80backed Yes	15c	673.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	27%24 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecd…44e8backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe832…036bbacked Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0121…f722backed Yes	10c	565.66$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.39	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	12c	490.37$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.77	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4da…b45ebacked Yes	12c	483.33$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	7c	472.87$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.1	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	13c	438.89$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…a754backed Yes	13c	415.83$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.11	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	21cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f42…6fcbbacked Yes	12c	411.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	75	16%12 W · 63 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	9c	410.83$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.04	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e79…daeabacked Yes	12c	409.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Yes	14c	363.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	259	45.2%117 W · 142 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac34…5cbdbacked Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	12c	351.02$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	10c	335.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.67	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked Yes	12c	334$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.08	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x451b…69b6backed Yes	13c	326.31$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe270…eab5backed Yes	10c	310$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	241	36.9%89 W · 152 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Yes	13c	268.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.07	202	50%101 W · 101 L	+9.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa23b…af4bbacked Yes	11c	266.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x165d…121cbacked Yes	13c	263.48$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.63	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-39%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes	10c	257.49$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…0ae3backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdb…3312backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	103	29.1%30 W · 73 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae69…65c9backed Yes	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11cb…0bdbbacked Yes	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	74c	232.22$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.7	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dcd…02eebacked Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1832…3c5abacked Yes	10c	230$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	10cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	10c	230$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.18	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	12c	221.24$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.82	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	10c	220.87$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.84	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed No	80c	215.05$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.01	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+13.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x68d4…0a9cbacked Yes	14c	214.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ad…eb9cbacked Yes	14c	214.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes	13c	213.88$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	426	40.1%171 W · 255 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4043…2bc7backed Yes	14c	212.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	63	15.9%10 W · 53 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc195…ed64backed Yes	10c	210$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	10c	201.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffda…769fbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1fc…2854backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb986…a464backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	11c	177.15$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf844…aa34backed Yes	13c	174.77$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.72	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes	12c	171.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb892…fd3abacked Yes	12c	170$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6da…2a10backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	56.3%45 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0848backed Yes	12c	163.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a7…a216backed Yes	14c	157.14$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes	12c	155$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	320	44.1%141 W · 179 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa393…2dd6backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-4.6wins	-0.21per pick	30cpaid	-73.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf351…135bbacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	8c	150.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	9c	149.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x567e…d582backed Yes	11c	145.45$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2dd…d9b8backed Yes	10c	145.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5e…e3a9backed Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefd6…e56dbacked Yes	11c	123$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x109d…4b20backed Yes	14c	107$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	58	50%29 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…8a02backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b8…52d6backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…5258backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…0e5ebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbec…0a1dbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc9…15f9backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8c…fae7backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7dd…e5e4backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd11c…af88backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa19…cc06backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4729…0b39backed Yes	14c	82.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948c…f2c2backed Yes	14c	70$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb69e…85c2backed Yes	15c	67.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x277b…54aebacked Yes	15c	67.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event