Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7f8c5d178965b491474fdd6f18b25d2cb7042c5e300d405bffba04e8e4ea6c

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $188,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $205,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,881 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd4c6…c4febacked Yes	4c	14,000$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x856d…770abacked Yes	7c	10,000$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd914…0d9abacked Yes	4c	6,678$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.56	80	28.8%23 W · 57 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x576f…ed2cbacked Yes	4c	6,500$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd085…ba5cbacked Yes	4c	5,412$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea9…b6b8backed Yes	5c	4,961$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.39	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5c…79dfbacked Yes	4c	4,593$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d4…ce14backed Yes	4c	3,600$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.01	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	4c	3,375$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.1	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c2…af5ebacked Yes	6c	3,306$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63b5…7ec8backed Yes	3c	2,621$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.98	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	5c	2,171$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.02	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	3c	2,000$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.14	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,861$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.4	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes	4c	1,542$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.76	131	22.1%29 W · 102 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	4c	1,473$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.19	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4642…21d3backed Yes	7c	1,335$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	104	26.9%28 W · 76 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes	6c	1,324$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	272	39%106 W · 166 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes	5c	1,111$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	165	40.6%67 W · 98 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f49…9178backed Yes	5c	1,077$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa962…8978backed Yes	10c	1,014$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed Yes	4c	996$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.84	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…0d41backed Yes	2c	952.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	37.5%27 W · 45 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…9705backed Yes	4c	914.78$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	49	10.2%5 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c37…d5afbacked Yes	6c	889.66$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	2c	799.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	4c	790.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	6c	727.23$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.58	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…1c1cbacked Yes	5c	700$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.05	100	42%42 W · 58 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	691.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21dd…e4f5backed Yes	5c	597.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.5wins	+0.20per pick	34cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	2c	526.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49a…4fb6backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed Yes	4c	499.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x341f…0442backed Yes	4c	499.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	150	20%30 W · 120 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d7…c07bbacked Yes	3c	499$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.73	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf8…25c3backed Yes	5c	448.33$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-49%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	438.03$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c79…a3d9backed Yes	6c	404.24$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Yes	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…9241backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	120	20.8%25 W · 95 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-31%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2408…8e34backed Yes	6c	352.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca2…c0c8backed Yes	7c	301.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes	5c	295.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	5c	263.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f91…ba06backed Yes	8c	259.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x390b…43a9backed Yes	5c	255.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd9…8cc1backed Yes	4c	243.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e1…c2c7backed Yes	6c	232.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes	6c	218.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	5c	213.07$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb96d…8e43backed Yes	5c	208.68$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…eec5backed Yes	5c	200.38$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.9wins	-0.21per pick	35cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x60a5…f52ebacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	177	38.4%68 W · 109 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x948c…f2c2backed Yes	8c	189.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes	7c	166.58$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	112	41.1%46 W · 66 L	-6.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe54…0281backed Yes	8c	124.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event