Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbadf26acbae24eb7aef799d679c761efb5748855813ca237fefac798e5fbf68

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $101,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $98,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,925 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	10c	18,482$1,873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,873.22	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9eb0backed Yes	0c	13,570$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…e4e0backed Yes	12c	4,305$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes	12c	2,572$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.6	193	45.1%87 W · 106 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…a470backed Yes	9c	2,222$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes	6c	2,091$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.38	209	55.5%116 W · 93 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	13c	1,886$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.09	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes	12c	1,489$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.76	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes	10c	1,250$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	9c	1,166$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	12c	1,071$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.31	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	8c	978.75$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.45	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Yes	12c	944.44$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	221	53.4%118 W · 103 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes	11c	900$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	116	37.1%43 W · 73 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	12c	830.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.68	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	3c	800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes	11c	717.29$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.9	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f5…d5eebacked Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Yes	8c	700$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	78	34.6%27 W · 51 L	+4.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes	13c	599.97$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Yes	12c	564.76$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.77	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd60a…1bcdbacked Yes	19c	540$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x018a…3b37backed Yes	13c	538.46$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes	10c	521.11$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.11	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Yes	7c	514.07$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.63	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes	8c	400$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	93	51.6%48 W · 45 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa393…2dd6backed Yes	15c	396.88$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-4.6wins	-0.21per pick	30cpaid	-73.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	80c	348$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.84	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5132…f025backed Yes	15c	323.87$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.58	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.23per pick	33cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes	11c	319.75$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.17	426	40.1%171 W · 255 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd7…5861backed Yes	17c	302.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3670…18e8backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-6.1wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2b8…8921backed Yes	16c	293.75$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	128	35.9%46 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	8c	291.62$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5afc…2995backed Yes	12c	272.05$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.29	79	35.4%28 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes	8c	269.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes	13c	250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	10c	233$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.96	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	9c	214.04$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e1…c2c7backed Yes	11c	213.36$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	9c	211$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68d4…0a9cbacked Yes	15c	206.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2722…03a5backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7dd…e5e4backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…0ae3backed Yes	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85db…0d12backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes	9c	175.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	176	32.4%57 W · 119 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2db…ffcbbacked Yes	7c	165.62$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4043…2bc7backed Yes	16c	145.68$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	63	15.9%10 W · 53 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	12c	141.46$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e29…6bd8backed Yes	15c	139.07$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2dd…d9b8backed Yes	14c	138.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc181…0848backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes	14c	126.92$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x45ac…d2bbbacked Yes	11c	115.15$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…d582backed Yes	15c	106.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes	13c	104$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aac…3dc6backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-22%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1ebb…9924backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Yes	13c	95.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	202	50%101 W · 101 L	+9.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1d…245fbacked Yes	14c	87.57$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5783…caebbacked Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c73…8989backed Yes	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf99d…f867backed Yes	13c	79.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x948c…f2c2backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event