Fifa International · resolved market
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e8d662577c6a8f15615bef9d4c8de5287f9dc0d8e2cb3e397ba248b46fdf7b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 53c | 6,609$3,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,136.15 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 53c | 3,554$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.16 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…85febacked Over | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…0365backed Over | 48c | 1,163$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.37 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Under | 53c | 999.97$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.98 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 53c | 961.53$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.92 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Under | 53c | 699.95$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.98 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Over | 46c | 628.26$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 46c | 600$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.43 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Over | 48c | 583.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…28d2backed Under | 54c | 550$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 439.62$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.86 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…d5bbbacked Over | 47c | 414.89$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 57c | 406.13$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.25 | 469 | 39.4%185 W · 284 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 50c | 373.15$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.58 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Over | 46c | 372.18$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 144 | 33.3%48 W · 96 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…3267backed Under | 50c | 345.71$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.31 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Over | 52c | 343.33$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.43 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 343.02$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.22 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 56c | 302$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 29c | 291.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 52c | 288$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 479 | 35.1%168 W · 311 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 8c | 230$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.7 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd388…4c38backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75fa…f90ebacked Under | 53c | 209.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…4d1bbacked Over | 43c | 206.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 8c | 204$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…34c6backed Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 48c | 184.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…5f6cbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 54c | 162.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 624 | 52.7%329 W · 295 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…08a6backed Over | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 252 | 21.4%54 W · 198 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 149.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 47c | 134$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 46c | 128.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 126.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…393abacked Over | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 115.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 258 | 48.4%125 W · 133 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6110…5d2ebacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 561 | 51%286 W · 275 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62a…8457backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…ccbdbacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…ef21backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa231…57e1backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2770backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Under | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…18b5backed Over | 50c | 80.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b81…fa01backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 74.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed Over | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 401 | 63.3%254 W · 147 L | +57.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 48c | 58.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…6a42backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 51c | 52.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 215 | 65.1%140 W · 75 L | +16.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…c7b8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…af24backed Under | 55c | 48.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7b…2564backed Over | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…c45ebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…9cc6backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 218 | 40.8%89 W · 129 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 38.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 50c | 33.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 198 | 62.1%123 W · 75 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…bb24backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…9a37backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 39c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…1687backed Over | 47c | 24.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 51c | 24.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +21.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 49c | 24.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ad68backed Under | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 171 | 54.4%93 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60bf…ebb6backed Over | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersthis page
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersOver won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 3.5 CornersOver won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 4.5 CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 5.5 CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 3.5 CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 12.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total CornersUnder won
- IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Team to Take First CornerNew Zealand won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.