TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,643 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks54c3,050$1,647 inWon+$1,4032,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Bucks46c3,050$1,403 inLost-$1,40313946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Bucks51c1,000$510 inLost-$51023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bucks50c729.32$362 inLost-$362.442,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Bucks49c692.67$339 inLost-$339.31,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Hawks49c580.51$283 inWon+$297.952,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks50c567.61$282 inWon+$285.169,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f95…6972backed Hawks53c513.05$273 inWon+$240.054748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb9…0f15backed Bucks50c200$100 inLost-$1001464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Bucks54c185.9$101 inLost-$100.9933554.6%183 W · 152 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks48c136.5$66 inWon+$70.473,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bucks46c108.45$50 inLost-$49.891,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bucks45c89.5$40 inLost-$39.921,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Bucks53c75$40 inLost-$39.7514452.1%75 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb2…eb78backed Hawks63c58$36 inWon+$21.573354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Hawks57c30$17 inWon+$12.988057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Bucks51c25.4$13 inLost-$12.9551438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Hawks50c25$12 inWon+$12.631,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd714…9a62backed Hawks52c23.69$12 inWon+$11.371080%8 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.