NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x808fca764ce67e6c03ffeae284a919726ee115ab4428a731562adb7944828912

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Hawks, Bucks
Resolved: Mar 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $70,960

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,960 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf668…5c69backed Hawks	62c	24,059$14,807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,252.56	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Bucks	41c	20,825$8,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,480.84	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-12.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc70b…27bdbacked Bucks	46c	5,000$2,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,300	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	59c	4,712$2,788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,924.23	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks	62c	4,422$2,742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,680.39	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks	40c	2,408$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.07	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks	38c	2,210$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$844.81	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Bucks	38c	2,040$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.31	226	43.8%99 W · 127 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x466d…7904backed Hawks	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc84…917fbacked Hawks	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4f…8db0backed Hawks	54c	1,500$810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe432…9dc8backed Hawks	54c	1,500$810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks	59c	953.02$566 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.3	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Bucks	39c	868.28$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.81	206	38.3%79 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks	38c	789.47$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x879f…dcd6backed Bucks	46c	734.24$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c35…15e3backed Bucks	46c	677$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Bucks	38c	659.5$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.61	219	37%81 W · 138 L	-15.9wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Bucks	38c	601.2$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.46	191	47.6%91 W · 100 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6970…afb7backed Bucks	46c	589$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Hawks	60c	500$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Hawks	58c	433.69$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.69	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Bucks	48c	400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	451	46.1%208 W · 243 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Hawks	62c	391$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.69	364	49.7%181 W · 183 L	-11.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Hawks	62c	387.1$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.1	476	51.7%246 W · 230 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks	39c	384.84$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.09	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Bucks	47c	291.99$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.24	451	51.4%232 W · 219 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bucks	39c	250$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Bucks	38c	205.2$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.79	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Hawks	60c	200$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	384	64.3%247 W · 137 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks	60c	200$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5926…4c2ebacked Hawks	61c	200$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	34	76.5%26 W · 8 L	+5.8wins	+0.17per pick	59cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7f0c…160cbacked Hawks	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	138	58%80 W · 58 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bucks	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…5c93backed Hawks	58c	199.99$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks	39c	184$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.71	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Hawks	58c	172.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.41	381	52.8%201 W · 180 L	+18.2wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Bucks	39c	164.22$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.05	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Hawks	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	295	54.6%161 W · 134 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Bucks	43c	159$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.62	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec91…c229backed Hawks	53c	147$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.09	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Bucks	47c	146.81$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	714	49.3%352 W · 362 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Hawks	58c	137.93$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.93	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Bucks	47c	128.01$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.16	369	54.7%202 W · 167 L	+28.0wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Hawks	58c	117.24$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.24	231	43.3%100 W · 131 L	-13.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks	38c	112.29$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.65	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Hawks	60c	104.38$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.51	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Hawks	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	267	45.3%121 W · 146 L	-7.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Bucks	38c	93$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.34	114	51.8%59 W · 55 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Bucks	42c	86.36$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.27	609	45.8%279 W · 330 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd983…d92dbacked Hawks	61c	81.87$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.87	298	44%131 W · 167 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Hawks	62c	81.77$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.07	278	47.1%131 W · 147 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Hawks	52c	80$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.4	375	49.6%186 W · 189 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Hawks	62c	79.99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	969	56.3%546 W · 423 L	+26.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Bucks	47c	67.52$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.74	1,393	48.3%673 W · 720 L	+19.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b27…7d50backed Hawks	62c	65$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.7	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9651…0488backed Hawks	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Hawks	60c	46.66$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.88	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…4132backed Bucks	40c	37.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	134	41.8%56 W · 78 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73b8…020dbacked Bucks	39c	35.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Bucks	40c	35.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	246	52.8%130 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Bucks	41c	35.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.39	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks	60c	33.7$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.48	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Bucks	42c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	144	48.6%70 W · 74 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6630…703cbacked Hawks	62c	32.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	112	58.9%66 W · 46 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Hawks	57c	32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.76	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Bucks	38c	31.77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.07	514	38.7%199 W · 315 L	-29.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed Bucks	40c	30.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hawks	63c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bucks	39c	29.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xffcf…ec0ebacked Hawks	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	98	46.9%46 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Bucks	38c	26.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fa…b505backed Hawks	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	112	44.6%50 W · 62 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Bucks	47c	23.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	248	41.9%104 W · 144 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Hawks	54c	20.41$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.39	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Hawks	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9361backed Hawks	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.3	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.47per pick	54cpaid	+88.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Hawks (-7.5)this page
1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
Bucks vs. HawksHawks won
Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 219.5Over won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Under won
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 11.5No won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 27.5No won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5No won
Ousmane Dieng: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event