TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,661 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68df…4815backed Under50c54,211$27,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,863.622240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over49c23,834$11,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,714.341,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c17,253$8,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,486.064,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under51c12,323$6,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,059.814,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Over50c11,405$5,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,702.548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over46c5,505$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.291,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over51c4,206$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1501,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bca…469dbacked Under51c4,166$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ec…bc49backed Under51c3,705$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…17ecbacked Under51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over49c2,942$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.8734851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf93f…d0cbbacked Under51c2,922$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under50c2,645$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.392,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e5…d8aebacked Over49c2,266$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Over48c2,149$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over49c2,121$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.292,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b2…6078backed Over49c2,069$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Over49c2,020$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c1,971$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.314,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9442…6e0ebacked Over49c1,966$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0726637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4747…f282backed Over49c1,769$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3484…b2bbbacked Over49c1,657$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.93250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a9a…f8e3backed Over49c1,456$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over49c1,453$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.533,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be0…f62fbacked Over49c1,402$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7094…9563backed Over49c1,208$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Under66c925.7$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.0726337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0d…7435backed Over29c863.47$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.628339.8%33 W · 50 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under51c823.53$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5367252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over49c800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39284342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under54c790.79$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.73,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Over50c778$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38954443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over23c693$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3352230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d8…4cc6backed Under55c655.31$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.3114455.6%80 W · 64 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over50c643.84$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.820638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Under54c633.33$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.3319359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over47c606.34$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.455,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2943,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6967…7f28backed Over50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…e032backed Over50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019045.8%87 W · 103 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over51c551.63$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.131,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under52c512.23$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9947542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c438.64$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.63,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under52c395.38$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.781,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over47c303.45$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.052,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over48c302.57$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over44c297.58$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.141,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Over51c297$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4710448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under52c281.42$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.082,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under50c274.94$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.572,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under51c252.4$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.099,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under52c237.68$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.062,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Under49c216.39$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.365850%29 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x434e…a62ebacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021748.4%105 W · 112 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under49c196$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.961,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84c…2c56backed Over43c191.4$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-70.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over50c185$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.554351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Under52c177.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1758450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under56c177.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2318242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8492…c05ebacked Over58c171.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003066.7%20 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under60c155.23$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.352,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Over50c138$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6928949.1%142 W · 147 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over50c115.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7151438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over41c107.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.151,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf93e…96eabacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012949.6%64 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.578648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4995047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Under63c99.45$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4665542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over50c71.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4667248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under54c70.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.811,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f3…229fbacked Over63c63.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed Over46c61.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.161850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Over50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under51c58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4246447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under62c56.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0888057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under50c51.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6211748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under53c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7511354.9%62 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b5…4a34backed Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251275%9 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+85.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabae…d62dbacked Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258145.7%37 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8948…76e5backed Over53c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.492944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over52c49.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7211845.8%54 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under55c40.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.321,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6630…703cbacked Under52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4611258.9%66 W · 46 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x295a…bdedbacked Over38c33.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked Over51c32.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.646850%34 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Over40c32.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.868937.1%33 W · 56 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Over46c31.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5414931.5%47 W · 102 L-18.4wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-36.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Over48c29.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2410951.4%56 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde58…b901backed Under55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.273754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over42c24.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1376653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Over47c22.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under57c20.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.733,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.