TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,890 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over53c20,487$10,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,798.241,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under48c12,429$5,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,482.694,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under50c8,318$4,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,193.5426544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c6,621$3,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,380.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over51c5,807$2,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,961.521,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d4…a863backed Over53c4,023$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4734…27d0backed Over53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over51c3,974$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.462,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under47c3,704$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.862,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…514ebacked Over53c3,702$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980b…dc57backed Over53c2,722$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Over48c2,422$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.7711443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Under48c2,256$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.2630446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Under47c2,255$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.3219445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe46…8011backed Under47c2,226$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0026…c6f2backed Under47c2,166$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96080737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0f2…6911backed Under47c1,966$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3248…ac69backed Under47c1,888$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over50c1,880$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.254,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f2…971fbacked Under47c1,755$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under52c1,600$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7681,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over52c1,538$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.762,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…5082backed Under47c1,536$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc978…36e9backed Under47c1,522$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over50c1,507$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.191,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75047542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0d…06c4backed Under47c1,388$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48053951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c821.71$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.184,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over50c634.47$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.232,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under52c580.88$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.663,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2653,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf9…9372backed Over60c422.48$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.493441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Over48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20032450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Under51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1644052.5%231 W · 209 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under49c368.54$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.21,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under51c340.87$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.953,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Over51c297$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.510448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over50c272.41$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.923,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Over48c238$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2415543.9%68 W · 87 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under41c223.73$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.762,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under51c204.8$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.241,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under52c182.16$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.441,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over44c168.49$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.31,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd9…3dadbacked Over48c102.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4895047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5135739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over46c96.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.452,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Under48c78.87$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7358450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0cf…6639backed Over48c75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0b3…091cbacked Under52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7150…476bbacked Under51c68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.323540%14 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c77…55a4backed Over49c67.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.323548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed Over48c61.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.081850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7715…ada4backed Over52c60.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.36344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under48c58.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2720638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under50c53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4346447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2741052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.578648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee3…bf37backed Under52c45.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227445.9%34 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Under43c45.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6510623.6%25 W · 81 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over55c41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.551,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over53c39.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Over49c36.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1836350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under50c36.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0264844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Over54c35.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1425651.6%132 W · 124 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over51c31.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611845.8%54 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ee…31aebacked Under49c30.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.451770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under54c27.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6460250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccc2…9d94backed Under51c27.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.495036%18 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over52c25.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3551438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x382f…c116backed Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Over54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.841354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d7…e874backed Over59c19.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over54c18.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1218853.7%101 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under70c16.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8137848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.