TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,666 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Over53c29,612$15,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,694.441,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Under47c28,447$13,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,076.929351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c75…329abacked Over50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0005750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under50c9,745$4,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,872.681,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c6,234$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,201.689,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c5,513$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,757.081,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over52c5,327$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.044,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Under50c3,015$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.55044%22 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c1,921$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.332,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c1,786$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.434,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over51c1,688$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.711,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over50c1,550$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.121,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75050754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under54c1,304$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.9365872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over45c1,078$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.493,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over50c381.54$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Over55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20044052.5%231 W · 209 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under49c285.71$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7152146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c231.22$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.673,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over53c212.75$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.761,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0843447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c158.63$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3237665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under55c138.57$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.362,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under49c125.66$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.51,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under46c104$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1646447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb3c…b4f5backed Under49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.042450%12 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over45c100.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.052,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa442…d722backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under47c81.52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2160945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over18c66.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9420638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under47c63.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5455347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under50c60.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.373,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Over46c52.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2226043.8%114 W · 146 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over30c46.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over52c46.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2751438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over45c38.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6888057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51ca…029bbacked Over52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f3…229fbacked Over52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9224…7807backed Over51c38.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.45862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under49c25.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8995047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Over55c22.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3817660.8%107 W · 69 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b1…4814backed Over65c18.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.032035%7 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.