NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3a8bd4ffd72a6a45d6206a1921aef0bb03621faca2f5d4995e724ddda4ad6dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,666 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 53c | 29,612$15,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,694.44 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 47c | 28,447$13,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,076.9 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…329abacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 9,745$4,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,872.68 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 6,234$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,201.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 5,513$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.08 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 5,327$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788.04 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Under | 50c | 3,015$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 1,921$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.33 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 1,786$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.43 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 51c | 1,688$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.71 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 50c | 1,550$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.12 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 54c | 1,304$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.93 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 45c | 1,078$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.49 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 381.54$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 440 | 52.5%231 W · 209 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 231.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 212.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 158.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 138.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 125.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 104$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 100.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…d722backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 47c | 81.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 18c | 66.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 47c | 63.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 60.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 46c | 52.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 30c | 46.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 52c | 46.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 45c | 38.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ca…029bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f3…229fbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…7807backed Over | 51c | 38.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 49c | 25.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Over | 55c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 176 | 60.8%107 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b1…4814backed Over | 65c | 18.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Bucks vs. HawksHawks won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Ousmane Dieng: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.