TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liverpool FCof Liverpool FC, Fulham FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,177 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Liverpool FC32c33,983$10,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,142.5417557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Fulham FC67c17,760$11,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,879.266,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fulham FC56c8,699$4,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,886.154,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Liverpool FC73c7,175$5,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.593148.4%15 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Fulham FC68c6,187$4,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,193.640655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Liverpool FC35c5,681$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,686.92,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Fulham FC70c4,674$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.4615757.3%90 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Liverpool FC35c4,176$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.3312532.8%41 W · 84 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Fulham FC68c2,745$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.3330057%171 W · 129 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fulham FC68c2,657$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.5876842.6%327 W · 441 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Liverpool FC34c2,499$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.191225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Fulham FC68c2,493$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.1927552.7%145 W · 130 L-1.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Fulham FC66c1,958$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.252,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Fulham FC67c1,934$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.7410765.4%70 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Liverpool FC33c1,763$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.139131.9%29 W · 62 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Liverpool FC33c1,680$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.3734628.6%99 W · 247 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Liverpool FC35c1,419$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.428345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Liverpool FC34c1,412$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.153847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Fulham FC69c1,090$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.3329250%146 W · 146 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Fulham FC65c1,007$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.3455751.5%287 W · 270 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Liverpool FC33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6703522.9%8 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e40fbacked Liverpool FC35c982.54$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.653948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Fulham FC26c955.6$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4682763%521 W · 306 L+113.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Liverpool FC33c942.98$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.827752.3%145 W · 132 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Fulham FC67c929.15$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8623556.2%132 W · 103 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4920…2ef4backed Fulham FC71c830.37$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.563154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Fulham FC67c814.46$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.059352.7%49 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Fulham FC66c747.32$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.2375850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Fulham FC66c742.12$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.82948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Fulham FC67c736.52$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9511555.7%64 W · 51 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Fulham FC65c661.46$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.092040%8 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c50…6225backed Liverpool FC74c657.79$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb602…1991backed Liverpool FC76c619.2$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.99875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Fulham FC67c567.64$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.3224047.5%114 W · 126 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Liverpool FC53c513.25$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.573237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5c…1768backed Fulham FC65c499.99$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.994360.5%26 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Fulham FC68c496.18$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.423258.2%135 W · 97 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Fulham FC69c490.7$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.583240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Fulham FC68c430.65$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.720651.9%107 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Fulham FC64c394.37$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.42951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Fulham FC33c382.7$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.791,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Fulham FC43c376.15$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.031,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Liverpool FC35c302.08$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.3710847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Liverpool FC35c302.03$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.324630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Fulham FC66c296.85$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.924348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Fulham FC70c280.85$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3924052.9%127 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ac…ea58backed Liverpool FC73c268.88$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fulham FC65c248.74$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7174644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Fulham FC67c228.49$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0239555.9%221 W · 174 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Fulham FC66c222.23$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.674932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Fulham FC27c212.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3712233.6%41 W · 81 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ef…e71ebacked Fulham FC64c200.63$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Fulham FC66c199.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5719244.8%86 W · 106 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1468…2ca9backed Fulham FC13c199.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.588122.2%18 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Fulham FC70c196.4$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4823353.6%125 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Fulham FC22c191.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4251516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed Fulham FC66c176.33$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.381747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3908…20eabacked Fulham FC69c169.08$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.66955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x530a…4961backed Liverpool FC34c151.71$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Liverpool FC36c133.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.482343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Liverpool FC29c129$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.348648.8%42 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Liverpool FC72c122.9$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4131849.1%156 W · 162 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c5…4602backed Liverpool FC30c119.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.031656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda68…d77fbacked Liverpool FC39c114.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Fulham FC38c113.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1961143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd03…df4abacked Fulham FC11c112.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7511433.3%38 W · 76 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Fulham FC22c110.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.118219.5%16 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Fulham FC65c103.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3513347.4%63 W · 70 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Liverpool FC31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6910221.6%22 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fulham FC30c99.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.896645.4%439 W · 527 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Fulham FC69c98.14$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.724969.4%34 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Liverpool FC34c96.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3919128.8%55 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Liverpool FC77c90.21$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.26253.2%33 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Liverpool FC32c89.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.156627.3%18 W · 48 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x305e…b28bbacked Fulham FC28c85.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.922119%4 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81b0…5159backed Liverpool FC34c84.74$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.939940.4%40 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Fulham FC69c84.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.121258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abf…8dd3backed Fulham FC67c83.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x772f…a69fbacked Liverpool FC34c83.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.071428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a0b…c3cbbacked Fulham FC25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Fulham FC68c78$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.045855.2%32 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Fulham FC60c77.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3496443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Fulham FC67c75.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6313846.4%64 W · 74 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Fulham FC65c75.31$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9528950.9%147 W · 142 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dbe…b1b1backed Fulham FC66c74.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9812250%61 W · 61 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed Liverpool FC33c72.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.727143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df5…1e18backed Fulham FC78c71.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.998445.2%38 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Fulham FC69c71.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0721254.2%115 W · 97 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00fa…9af5backed Liverpool FC74c68.91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.929561.1%58 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Fulham FC66c68.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.266549.2%32 W · 33 L-8.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-13.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc112…d1efbacked Liverpool FC73c67.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.196339.7%25 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Fulham FC41c63.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6841260.2%248 W · 164 L+22.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Liverpool FC31c61.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Liverpool FC32c61.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.891315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-63.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed Fulham FC74c59.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.715149%25 W · 26 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Liverpool FC34c56.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2918841.5%78 W · 110 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe253…b9c7backed Liverpool FC34c56.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.273138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa6…e929backed Liverpool FC35c54.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.694337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3baa…68ecbacked Fulham FC67c51.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.31266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+125.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Fulham FC69c47.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.977943%34 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.