TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,215 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No40c657.44$266 inWon+$391.875,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Yes59c165.32$98 inLost-$97.549437.2%35 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Yes60c162.67$98 inLost-$97.61560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3aa8…bb92backed Yes62c132.56$82 inLost-$81.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No42c116.38$49 inWon+$67.51,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…b45fbacked Yes60c113.87$68 inLost-$68.326547.7%31 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes60c87.84$53 inLost-$52.77153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No38c83.82$32 inWon+$51.9279650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Yes58c83.19$48 inLost-$48.2542740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1150…abe0backed Yes60c81.33$49 inLost-$48.83560%21 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No42c68.97$29 inWon+$4056050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x191b…824abacked Yes58c50.42$29 inLost-$29.245253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked No49c48.47$24 inWon+$24.7237755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes58c30.25$18 inLost-$17.5510844.4%48 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80ba…758ebacked Yes57c25.64$15 inLost-$14.61238.7%2 W · 21 L-8.6wins-0.37per pick46cpaid-86.8%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x08fb…8b8bbacked Yes59c19.51$12 inLost-$11.516746.3%31 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.