TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x80ba…758e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 49 out of 100 (-0.01 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category Fifa International at 49 out of 100; worst NBA at 30.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT238.7%2 W · 21 L-8.6wins-0.37per pick46cpaid-86.8%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.77
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 20.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$5.19
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.73
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.39
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.51
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.23
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.66
Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.61
Magic vs. 76ersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.36
Pelicans vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.39
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.62
Kings vs. Trail Blazersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.26
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.19
Hawks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$30.6
Pistons vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.49
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.59
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.41
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.67
Suns vs. Hornetsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.48
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah vs. Golden Knightsbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.73
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.